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CategoryInterest rates

Bank of Canada takes a pause with rate hikes

Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney, held the Target Rate steady today…as expected…  Concerns about the U.S. economic recovery stalling, the Global economy and our own domestic economy were mentioned in the Press Release.

In the press release, the Bank said inflation was not a concern as it is under the 2% target.  Take all this data and it spells UNCERTAINTY.

What’s also interesting is that the Bank has adjusted it’s forecast for growth downward for the next 2 years…Great news for those in a Variable rate… Variable rates are hovering around 2.30% these days.

This makes the Variable Rate product that much more attractive…even with 5 year fixed rates in the 3.59% range.

Experts believe the rate will remain steady throughout next Spring and possibly into Fall depending on inflation and Global and domestic economic data….

Click here for the Press Release.

Mortgage Rate Forecast in Canada

Here’s a recent article forecasting low rates that appeared in The Globe and Mail. The article points to Scotiabank’s Economist as saying “the economy has lost considerable momentum.”

Scotiabank is also forecasting  the Bank of Canada to keep the Target Rate or the Overnight Rate flat until the 3rd quarter of 2011.   This means the Variable rate should remain a good option with rates between 2.25% to 2.30%.

Current Bond yields are at 1.94% as of today…. this means the fixed rate spread is 1.65%.. this is above the normal 1.25% to 1.40%…

Fixed rates are priced closely to the Bond market but indirectly by the Bank of Canada’s actions… we are seeing 5 year fixed rates (the benchmark for fixed rates) hovering at 3.59% to 3.69%… and they could still go lower…

Enjoy the low rates… borrow wisely!

More speculation that interest rates will remain low

We’re starting to see more evidence that the recovery is not going as well as the Bank of Canada first thought.   Inflation has dipped slightly, even with the HST.

CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, says we are beyond the ‘Great Depression of 2008-09 but we are in the ‘Great Disappointment’ of  a sub-par recovery.   He’s forecasting for interest rates to remain flat until the spring of next year, followed by only gradual increases thereafter.

Great news for anyone that has a mortgage…

Historical Interest Rate charts

One of our Lenders, Firstline, sends out a monthly update on Interest rates  .. click here FLM-Historical- Rate-Sheets-May 2010 .  The Charts go back 25 years… some very interesting patterns…  Overwhelming data that shows Variable rate or short-term mortgages really do outperform Longer term fixed rate products…

Another benefit is a fixed or reduced mortgage prepayment penalty…. (anyone with a longer term fixed rate could face enormous penalties of 6, 7, 10 or even 12 months worth of interest)…. Variable rate or short mortgages usually have penalties of 3 months interest or less.

Not sure where you fit in?   Call me anytime with your questions or comments.

Interest rate hike coming… no need to panic…

We’ve seen a lot of media coverage about the interest rate hikes coming this summer.. yes, it’s true… The Bank of Canada will raise their overnight rate very soon.. By how much? Maybe 0.75% by the end of the year.. or maybe 1.00% like this these Economists are forecasting as reported in the Globe and Mail.

Think about it.. if you arranged your variable rate mortgage before Oct 2008, then you have been enjoying interest rates below 2.00%… WOW!…I mean come on, are you kidding me?  What’s wrong with that…?

So let’s assume rates go up by 1.00% or even 2.00% like some think it will over the next few years… that would still mean your mortgage is below 4.00%…. And the record low for a 5 year fixed mortgage rate is just below 4.00%…

That’s right… even if rates increase by 2.00%, you would still be in historical low rates when compared to a 5 yr fixed rate…..So why is this so bad or going to be such shocker??

And by the way, competition and improved investor confidence is bringing variable rate mortgage pricing closer to normal levels…..the good old days…!

To qualify for a variable rate mortgage you had to qualify at the 3 year fixed rate…posted rate for most lenders…

I hope you are seeing a pattern here…. the New Mortgage Rules coming into effect April 19 will mean you must qualify at the Chartered Bank 5 yr POSTED rate….Banks would love for all their clients to take a 5 yr fixed rate as these are the most profitable product for them…(would you rather pay 1.85% or 3.79%??)

Don’t be in too much of a hurry to get yourself into a higher rate…a fixed rate… you are only buying insurance… and very costly at that…..

For some of us, a fixed rate is worth the peace of mind and is important for us to know what our budget is … Discuss with a mortgage broker…. get the facts…

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