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CategoryInterest rates

How will the high $Canadian dollar affect mortgage rates?

The Canadian dollar is just about at par with the U.S. dollar…  The BMO Economist sums it up well when he says “Generally speaking, from a stronger currency, consumers win and producers lose.”  As quoted in the Vancouver Sun.

And a high Canadian dollar means the Bank of Canada is less likely to increase the Target Rate which affects Variable Rates…  Any move by the Bank of Canada upwards will only drive the Canadian dollar higher…
A high Canadian dollar hurts our exports as they become more expensive for other countries to buy…  and we will probably see more cross border shopping as our strong $CAD will have more buying power…
Bottom line is that Variable Rates appear to be safe for now… enjoy the low rates…

 

Bank of Canada takes a pause with rate hikes

Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney, held the Target Rate steady today…as expected…  Concerns about the U.S. economic recovery stalling, the Global economy and our own domestic economy were mentioned in the Press Release.

In the press release, the Bank said inflation was not a concern as it is under the 2% target.  Take all this data and it spells UNCERTAINTY.

What’s also interesting is that the Bank has adjusted it’s forecast for growth downward for the next 2 years…Great news for those in a Variable rate… Variable rates are hovering around 2.30% these days.

This makes the Variable Rate product that much more attractive…even with 5 year fixed rates in the 3.59% range.

Experts believe the rate will remain steady throughout next Spring and possibly into Fall depending on inflation and Global and domestic economic data….

Click here for the Press Release.

Mortgage Rate Forecast in Canada

Here’s a recent article forecasting low rates that appeared in The Globe and Mail. The article points to Scotiabank’s Economist as saying “the economy has lost considerable momentum.”

Scotiabank is also forecasting  the Bank of Canada to keep the Target Rate or the Overnight Rate flat until the 3rd quarter of 2011.   This means the Variable rate should remain a good option with rates between 2.25% to 2.30%.

Current Bond yields are at 1.94% as of today…. this means the fixed rate spread is 1.65%.. this is above the normal 1.25% to 1.40%…

Fixed rates are priced closely to the Bond market but indirectly by the Bank of Canada’s actions… we are seeing 5 year fixed rates (the benchmark for fixed rates) hovering at 3.59% to 3.69%… and they could still go lower…

Enjoy the low rates… borrow wisely!

More speculation that interest rates will remain low

We’re starting to see more evidence that the recovery is not going as well as the Bank of Canada first thought.   Inflation has dipped slightly, even with the HST.

CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, says we are beyond the ‘Great Depression of 2008-09 but we are in the ‘Great Disappointment’ of  a sub-par recovery.   He’s forecasting for interest rates to remain flat until the spring of next year, followed by only gradual increases thereafter.

Great news for anyone that has a mortgage…

Historical Interest Rate charts

One of our Lenders, Firstline, sends out a monthly update on Interest rates  .. click here FLM-Historical- Rate-Sheets-May 2010 .  The Charts go back 25 years… some very interesting patterns…  Overwhelming data that shows Variable rate or short-term mortgages really do outperform Longer term fixed rate products…

Another benefit is a fixed or reduced mortgage prepayment penalty…. (anyone with a longer term fixed rate could face enormous penalties of 6, 7, 10 or even 12 months worth of interest)…. Variable rate or short mortgages usually have penalties of 3 months interest or less.

Not sure where you fit in?   Call me anytime with your questions or comments.

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