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Mortgage rates went up…. but why? And will they continue to go up?

fearup down graph

A month ago, I said Fixed mortgage rates probably hit the bottom.   A week later, fixed mortgage rates started to go up… around 0.20% over the past 3 weeks.  Variable rate mortgage pricing has gone from Prime less 0.65% to Prime less Prime less 0.40%.

Now, here’s the thing….  I don’t think rates will skyrocket over the next 6 or 12 months, like the pessimists would have you believe.  I think mortgage rates hit the bottom….BUT, they probably won’t go up very quickly.

In fact, the forecast now is for the Bank of Canada rate to stay the same until 2017.   This is just another example of how the world has become a smaller place.  If someone sneezes in Germany, we catch a cold.  With most of the global economies just getting by, there isn’t much reason for mortgage rates to go crazy.   They should remain low.

The key driver for rates going up recently is nothing more than profit taking.  Banks have had a great year… In case you didn’t know.  That’s right.. we seem to forget that 2015 was one of the best years on record for real estate and mortgage volume…  and house prices have never been higher.    Funny how that seems to get lost in the media reports.

Look for Variable rate pricing to fall in the new year…  Fixed rates could also come down slightly, but don’t count on them hitting the record lows that we saw this summer.   Hey, that’s not to say rates are bad.   We are still well under 3.00%.   These are ridiculously low mortgage rates.    Enjoy them while you can.

Your best interest is my only interest.   I reply to all questions and I welcome your comments.  Like this article?  Share with a friend.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

Have Fixed mortgage rates hit the bottom?

record low ratesEarlier this year, Fixed rates hit new all-time lows.  This must sounds like a broken record, or for those in the modern error, sounds like a glitch or a skip (somehow, ‘broken record’ sounds better).

5 year fixed rates hit 2.59%.  This is the lowest we have ever seen. (before you start emailing me that you’ve seen lower rates, yes, I know.. I see them too and have access to them.. but those products are full of restrictions, limitations and inflated prepayment penalty calculations… for our purposes, I’m only discussing quality mortgage products with no gimmicks or strings attached).

Now, looking at the 5 yr govt of Cda bond yields (this is where fixed rates are closely priced from), we have seen this drop down to as low as 0.70%… it’s been holding steady in the 0.80% range since July.    Normally, the 5 fixed rate is priced 1.10% to 1.50% above the 5 yr bond yield..  but the spread has been at or over 1.79% for quite a while.   So, why haven’t the fixed rates gone down further? Continue reading “Have Fixed mortgage rates hit the bottom?”

Rates usually drop leading up to a Federal election!

Election 2015History tells us that mortgage rates usually drop leading up to an election. And 2015 has followed that trend.   It started in January of this year, when the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor, Stephen Poloz, shocked Economists with his surprise 0.25% Bank Rate cut.

(CanadaMortgageNews.ca readers will remember, not all were shocked, as I had predicted a rate drop just days earlier).

Then in July, the BOC Govr did it again..  this time, it wasn’t as much a shock.  The Bank Prime was cut by another 0.25% after months of negative Economist data showed the Canadian economy was slowing.  Continue reading “Rates usually drop leading up to a Federal election!”

BIG SIX BANKS aren’t passing along the Bank of Canada rate cut to consumers?

banksters monopolyToday, the actual BANK PRIME rate should be 2.50%, not 2.70%.   What am I talking about?… follow me on this and let’s see if this makes sense.

It’s been a few weeks since the Bank of Canada cut the rate.  I’ve been waiting to see how this would play out… First, let’s get the terminology clear.    Bank of Canada overnight rate, or Key rate as it’s referred to, directly affects the Retail Bank Prime rate and Variable rate mortgages.   This does not have a direct impact on fixed rate mortgages.

Last January, the Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz, surprised most economists and financial experts when he cut the rate by 0.25% (well, not all experts, I called for a rate cut just a week earlier).
Continue reading “BIG SIX BANKS aren’t passing along the Bank of Canada rate cut to consumers?”

BIG SIX BANKS finally cut Prime rate.. Well, sort of…!

banksters monopolyLast week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut their overnight rate by 0.25%.  The move surprised all the so-called ‘Financial Experts’…  (well, not me… As I had suggested rates were likely to drop in the previous week’s article and also in the previous month).

Our BIG SIX BANKS had their own surprise for us.   Instead of passing along the usual rate cut to consumers, they sat on their hands and did nothing.   In fact, TD Bank felt good about it and made public statements about how their Bank Prime rate wasn’t fully influenced by the BOC rate.     (That’s such a load of bull, you can almost smell it coming out of your screens!)

And also last week, the Banks immediately cut the rate they pay you on your savings by that same 0.25%.   Continue reading “BIG SIX BANKS finally cut Prime rate.. Well, sort of…!”

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