Tageconomic forecast

Posted March 6, 2025 Bank News

Tariffs Up but Mortgage Rates Down

A quick note… we’ve all heard about the Trump Tariffs. It will make everything more expensive. Canada and also in the USA. It will put people’s jobs at risk, we are likely to see layoffs, and economists are forecasting for a recession. This is if the tariffs do go through and continue for over a month.

Now that I’ve cheered you up, here’s the good news. And there is some. Mortgage rates are headed lower. Fixed rates and variable rates. The old rule of bad economic news brings lower interest rates is true. A few things to point out about How interest rates are calculated.

Posted November 22, 2023 Mortgage News

The 2024/2025 Rate Forecast

At the Mortgage Professionals Canada conference last month, Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets, gave a very hopeful and informative presentation.

Mr. Tal always has a keen sense of what’s next both nationally and internationally. He is extremely apt at making sense of global economics, then breaking down in simple terms what it means for Canada. This time he came forward with a positive forecast that I agree with: rates are due to fall.

Posted January 15, 20193 Comments Bank News

Remember when I said rates could go down, not up?!

If you’re a regular reader of this site, you’ll know I’ve been very skeptical and critical of the Bank of Canada (BoC) for continuing to increase interest rates. It just hasn’t made sense.

The BoC raised rates FIVE TIMES between July 2017 and October 2018. That’s a 1.25% increase. For anyone with a $300,000 mortgage, your payment increased by $189 per month. Or, to put it another way, for every $100,000 of mortgage, your payment went up by around $63 per month.

Yet, we kept hearing that the BoC wanted to raise rates further. Economists and other experts were saying we should expect more rate increases by the end of 2018! Wow!

Continue reading “Remember when I said rates could go down, not up?!”

Posted November 22, 20181 Comment Mortgage News

Housing slump? Recession? Not so fast…

Remember all those pessimists who were calling for a housing bubble or collapse?

If you listened to them and rented for the past eight years, how much would you have lost? How much would your rent have increased since then? And would you still be able to rent that condo or house… or would your landlord possibly have plans to sell it and leave you out in the cold?

We used to expect an economic slowdown or recession every five years. But something happened after the last big recession in 1990. Since then, there has really only been one recession: in 2009.

This came off the heels of the infamous US subprime mortgage crisis that crippled most of the world’s economies for years. Yet, in Canada, we got off relatively easy. Our slowdown lasted less than a year.

Continue reading “Housing slump? Recession? Not so fast…”

Posted August 28, 2018 Mortgage News

Looser Mortgage Standards Hit the UK! Is Canada Next?!

There’s nothing surprising about the loosening of mortgage standards to spur growth. In the last real housing bubble of 1990, banks and government brought in stricter lending rules, making it tougher for borrowers to get a mortgage.

Fast forward to the present. We’ve yet to see a housing bubble or market crash, but the government has taken drastic – perhaps even unheard of – precautions to slow the housing market.

In 1990, I was working for the largest trust company in Canada. I can tell you that it has never been harder to qualify for a mortgage than it is today!

Continue reading “Looser Mortgage Standards Hit the UK! Is Canada Next?!”