Mortgage rate outlook 2017.. Expect Fixed mortgage rates to go up…Expect Variable rate pricing to drop.

trudeau-trumpFixed mortgage rates have increased by about 0.40% in the last 6 weeks.   Today’s 5 year fixed rates are at around 2.89% and will could continue to go up in 2017.   There are political and fundamental reasons why rates have gone up. (oh, by the way..  it’s not panic time.. who ever said that 5 yr fixed rates were the best product to choose anyways? more on this later.)

FUNDAMENTAL REASONS

Govt of Cda bond yields have gone up around 0.55% since October (fixed rates are priced from govt of Cda bond yields).  It’s more expensive for Lenders to fund mortgages due to stricter government regulation and higher Capital holding requirements.  These increased costs are being passed down to the consumer.

Okay, this is the “how” the rates are higher.. but what’s prompted these fundamentals?  Why are rates higher?

POLITICAL REASONS.. IT’S ALL POLITICS Read the rest of this entry »

Mortgage Brief.. Mortgages rules explained… and why didn’t the govt consult experts?

Bill Morneautrudeau

They say we don’t read emails or articles anymore.. we just skim through them.   But some things can’t be understood with a quick glance.  The new mortgage rules will impact EVERYONE!

If you want to understand how they impact you, continue reading… If you don’t care or want to be oblivious, take the blue pill and move on.

I’ve put together a list of the mortgage rules so that you can understand what they mean and how they will impact you.   Hey, let’s give The Federal govt some credit… they’ve been transparent about a few things, right?:

  • They want house prices to drop.
  • They don’t want anyone to have a mortgage if their home is worth more than $1,000,000.
  • They don’t want you to ever refinance your mortgage.  You should only require a mortgage when you buy a house.
  • They don’t want you to buy a house and rent it out.  You should only buy a rental property if it has 2 or more units.
  • Mortgages should not be amortized for longer than 25 years.
  • They want rates to go way up.

Here we go.. Forget the data and stats being reported today.  Those stats don’t matter!  We want to see the stats after March 30th, 2017.

Remember the mortgage rule changes of October 17th?  How about the ones on November 30th?  Get ready, we won’t see the full effect of these changes until after March 30th 2017.

That’s when the last of the mortgage approvals will have closed, that were done under the old rules. And all the new mortgage closings beyond this date, will have had to been qualified with the new rules.  This is when we’ll begin to see the impact of these rules… And we’ll begin to see just how many Canadians will be have been impacted.

If you think I’m wrong, read the rule changes below and tell me what other conclusions you can come up with. Read the rest of this entry »

Bi-weekly payment myth… it doesn’t pay your mortgage off faster.

RRSP home buyers planFor years, we’ve been told to pay our mortgage bi-weekly. Magically, it will  pay your mortgage off faster.  Hmm, let’s put that to the test.

(SPOILER ALERT!)  Around 6 yrs ago, I wrote an article showing some simple but effective math to explain this.   I’m constantly getting emails from my readers asking me what they should do..obviously, a popular topic.

Let me also say, there is merit to paying bi-weekly…I’ll explain further on.

HISTORY OF BI-WEEKLY PAYMENTS

Back in the mid 90’s, there was a huge marketing blitz by the Big Banks that promoted making bi-weekly payments instead of the traditional monthly payments.   The sales pitch was that you could save huge amounts of money and pay your mortgage off much faster….save 4 or 5 years off your amortization…. Sound familiar?   Well, BI-WEEKLY PAYMENTS DON’T REALLY SAVE YOU ANYTHING!

And I’ll prove it…. here’s the straight facts! Read the rest of this entry »

Bridge loans explained… your bank hates them but they are extremely useful

bridge-loansBridge loans are short-term loans that bridge the gap between two different closing dates.  More commonly used when an existing homeowner sells their home, and buys another home, with two different closing dates.   But bridge loans have become a very popular way to take possession of that new home while it’s empty for 2 or 3 weeks to allow for renos.   Best of all, it’s really inexpensive!

THE OLD WAY

In the past, most homebuyers would have their selling and buying dates match.   It’s always been a bit of a juggling act as you have to pack your moving truck and unpack it, all in less than a day.   Somehow, everyone manages to get it done… but you talk about one of the most stressful days in your life….moving ranks right up there!   Throw in some kids, maybe a dog, and a house full of stuff and you have a real chore on your hands….

THE NEW WAY… Read the rest of this entry »

Unexpected Trump win on Canadian mortgage rates and market.

US electionThe surprise Donald Trump US election win has caught many off-guard.  The pollsters have been quiet to comment after they all predicted a Clinton win.

Here’s what week 1 looks like, after the Trump win.  The first few days saw some chaos in the stock market.  Stock market went down and so did Govt of Canada bond yields.

However within a day, the stock market began to rise.  The Dow Jones hit all time record highs.  The Toronto market was up also, but not as much as the US.  The Canadian $ took a bit of a beating.  And the Govt of Canada bond yields started to rise.  This last one is important to watch.

Fixed mortgage rates are closely tied to govt of Canada bond yields.  We’ve now seen Bond yields increase by over 0.35%.  that’s a huge increase in such a short period of time.   Banks and Mortgage Lenders have begun to increase fixed mortgage rates.

Investors are betting on Trump stimulating the US economy and taking no foreign prisoners.  That’s caused some jitters in the markets.  I’m watching the markets closely.   This could just be a short term reaction.  Or, it could be an adjustment to the record low mortgage rates.

MY VIEW…   Read the rest of this entry »

Marital splits… woman seem to be at higher risk when it comes to finances.

 

Stack of Coins and Bride and Groom Wedding Cake DecorationsThey say about half of all marriages end up in divorce.  In Canada, it’s around 48%.  In the U.S., it’s around 53% according to Stats Canada.  You’ve probably heard these stats before.

But what happens when a couple splits and all the financial matters were being handled by just one spouse?  In most cases (but not all), it’s the woman who is left with no knowledge of money matters.    Over the years, I’ve seen hundreds of marital splits and in an overwhelming majority of cases, the woman is left in the dark when it comes to finances (that trend is changing as today’s women are becoming more financially astute..  good for them.. let’s continue that trend).

There is HOPE and HELP.   Here are some things you can do to take charge of your finances before or after a marital split: Read the rest of this entry »

Mortgage brief.. CMHC ‘red warning’.. what’s it mean?

red-warningMuch has been made about CMHC’s Economists ‘Red Warning’ that was put out for the 4th quarter of 2016.  Let’s take a look at what the report actually says.

CMHC’s economists have 3 categories of measurement that are of concern.  Overheating, Price acceleration and Overvaluation.

VANCOUVER AND TORONTO

The Vancouver market had already been identified by CMHC as having moderate Overheating and Price Acceleration and Strong Overvaluation.    Toronto now has the same issues with the same Overall Assessment of Strong evidence of problematic conditions.

Put another way, CMHC believes the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets are vulnerable.   While this is cause for concern, there was also some other info in the report that we should be probably not overlook… Read the rest of this entry »

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