Canadian economist Benjamin Tal’s presentation at the National Mortgage Brokers Conference was eye-opening. In it, he posited a holistic view of what’s happening with the Canadian economy and what we can expect to happen next. He’s rarely been wrong in the 20 years I’ve been following him – so I thought it was incredibly important to share his insights with you.
Part 1 of this series dives into the forces he believes are impacting inflation. These include international economies as well as lasting effects from the pandemic. There’s one factor however that I believe is most responsible for our current economic climate and is worthy of a larger conversation: the labour market.
Continue reading “Insights From A Top Canadian Economist: Part 2”
Rumour has it the worst is yet to come. On October 26th, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will very likely increase rates by another 0.50%. Not only will this push the bank prime rate up to 5.95% – it could lead to the average 5-year fixed rate mortgage well above 6.00%. What a mess. As I mentioned in my previous article, the BoC made a critical error and the Canadian people are continuing to pay for it.
Continue reading “How To Navigate Today’s Economy”
The Bank of Canada has always avoided forecasting rate hikes and rate cuts. It’s always been a closely guarded secret left to speculation – that is, of course, until July 2020. In what might have been the first announcement of its kind in the history of the BoC, Governor Tiff Macklem publicly stated that “interest rates are low and will stay low for a long time.”
The central bank didn’t anticipate having to raise rates until 2023 and for some reason made a choice to communicate that to Canadians. Naturally, Canadians made financial decisions accordingly. Big financial decisions. All on the basis of a promise made by a government institution they knew and trusted.
As we’re now learning, that promise was impossible to keep.
Continue reading “A Broken Promise Leads To A Broken Economy”
It’s no secret to anyone reading this: rate hikes have gone off the rails. On September 7th, the Bank of Canada announced yet another whopping increase of 0.75% leaving economists scratching their heads. Typically rates increase or decrease by 0.25%, if they change at all. Inflation has forced the BoC to make some pretty drastic decisions… but have they gone too far?
Continue reading “The 3 Questions I Get Asked Most About Rising Rates”
For millions of Canadians, the Bank of Canada meetings are a major cause of anxiety. Will rates go up? By how much? Will I continue to be able to meet my monthly mortgage payments? It’s only natural to ask these questions. Recent hikes have been dramatic to say the least. And to make matters worse, the media has a way of making everyone feel like these hikes are in a perpetual uphill climb.
But in my opinion, a plateau is coming sooner than expected.
Continue reading “When Will Variable Rates Stop Climbing?”