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Rate Cuts and Pending Deals – A quick note

As the dust starts to settle on yesterday’s Bank of Canada rate cut, here’s some clarification on what happens next.

To all my pending clients or clients with something on the go, your rates will be automatically adjusted downward.

For new clients, prospective purchasers, or people that want to take advantage of these falling rates, don’t hesitate to reach out to my office today. I am happy to discuss how you can take advantage of this.

Your best interest is my only interest.

As always, I welcome your comments, calls and questions.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

Why didn't the Bank of Canada Gov cut rates last week

Why didn’t the Bank of Canada Gov cut rates last week?

Why didn't the Bank of Canada Gov cut rates last week

WAS THIS A BIG MISTAKE?

Last week, Stephen Poloz, the Bank of Canada Governor, kept the Prime Rate as is during the 6th of their eight scheduled meetings for 2019.  The Current Target rate is 1.75%.  (Bank Prime rate is derived from this rate.  Today’s Bank Prime rate is 3.95%.  Over 99% of time, when the Target Rate is cut, the Banks will reduce the Bank Prime Rate by an equal amount).

This was a very calculated decision that has politics written all over it.  While the rest of the world banks have been cutting rates to combat a looming recession due to growing global trade wars and slowing global economies, our Government did nothing.  Apparently, the Canadian economy is ‘resilient’.  The next Bank of Canada meeting is set for October 30, 2019.  Oh, and there’s a Federal election on Oct 21, 2019.  Yeah, this has politics written all over it.

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES TODAY.  Continue reading “Why didn’t the Bank of Canada Gov cut rates last week?”

Mortgage Rates have Dropped and Will Fall Further

Mortgage shopping

Rate forecasting isn’t rocket science – it’s more common sense than you think! But, it requires a clear mind to make sense of all the rubbish that’s being published these days.

I’ve been forecasting for a while now that interest rates would start to come back down this year. Currently, interest rates are down by around 0.4% and will come down further.

WHY ARE RATES FALLING?  Continue reading “Mortgage Rates have Dropped and Will Fall Further”

Mortgage growth has slowed… so why are BANKS winning & CONSUMERS losing?

Blog Image, Feb 12, 2018

I reviewed some recent stats that explain how overall mortgage growth has fallen to its lowest level in the past 17 years!

Overall, mortgages outstanding across Canada total more than $1.5 trillion. And, while this total continues to increase year over year, the rate of growth has decreased. We should pay attention to this!

Typically, when we experience lower mortgage growth or no growth at all, house prices will follow suit and come down.

But, why aren’t the banks up in arms over this given that they make huge profits by lending money? (More on this below.)

Continue reading “Mortgage growth has slowed… so why are BANKS winning & CONSUMERS losing?”

Remember when I said rates could go down, not up?!

saving money-young woman putting a coin into a money-box-close up

If you’re a regular reader of this site, you’ll know I’ve been very skeptical and critical of the Bank of Canada (BoC) for continuing to increase interest rates. It just hasn’t made sense.

The BoC raised rates FIVE TIMES between July 2017 and October 2018. That’s a 1.25% increase. For anyone with a $300,000 mortgage, your payment increased by $189 per month. Or, to put it another way, for every $100,000 of mortgage, your payment went up by around $63 per month.

Yet, we kept hearing that the BoC wanted to raise rates further. Economists and other experts were saying we should expect more rate increases by the end of 2018! Wow!

Continue reading “Remember when I said rates could go down, not up?!”

What’s the TRUE Impact of Policy Changes on the Canadian Mortgage Market?

Boc Mortgage Rule Impacts, Dec 2018

It’s certainly not what the Bank of Canada (BoC) is claiming!

The BoC recently released a document detailing what it believes to be a positive report on the Canadian Mortgage Market, but this article clearly shows how out of touch our government is.

The BoC is applauding their statistics… yet, these numbers show that the government appears to be measuring affordability as a multiple of one’s income – and not by the proven, standard method of debt servicing ratios. This is very odd and, quite frankly, I find it absurd.

Continue reading “What’s the TRUE Impact of Policy Changes on the Canadian Mortgage Market?”

Why Did the Bank of Canada Raise Rates Last Week?!

Canada Mortgage rate 20180509

Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its overnight target rate to 1.5% – up from 1.25%. This is the fourth increase since last June, when the target rate was 0.5%.

The timing is suspect to me. Last year, we had an increase around this time, but that was coming off of the hottest housing market in 29 years. We’re currently on the heels of a brutally slow spring market, yet rates are still rising? I don’t get it… this is a poor decision, in my opinion.

When it comes to four rate increases in the past year, there are facts, realities and perceptions that come into play… Continue reading “Why Did the Bank of Canada Raise Rates Last Week?!”

Record-Low Variable Rate Wars EXPIRE THURSDAY… Don’t miss out!

Don't Miss Deadline

The incredible variable rate wars we’re seeing this month are about to come to a close! It would be a shame to miss out on these savings! And, while there is a possibility that they’ll extend into June, I wouldn’t risk it – deep savings like these don’t come around every day! In fact, I’ve never seen advertised variable rates this low!

If your mortgage is coming up for renewal soon – or, even if it’s not – it’s worth a call to your mortgage broker to discuss the possible savings. The math speaks for itself…

Continue reading “Record-Low Variable Rate Wars EXPIRE THURSDAY… Don’t miss out!”

And the Variable Rate price wars begin… Here’s how you can benefit!

Variable Discounts Image, May 2018In order to fully understand how to take advantage of record-low variable rates, it’s important to learn some mortgage history.

BMO came out swinging first a week ago with a variable rate of Prime minus 1.00%. Historically, when a BIG SIX BANK comes out with a huge price decrease, it’s only for a very short time – likely 2-3 weeks. But, during that time, they can gain massive volumes and satisfy their market share requirements from the average borrower.

With all the talk of interest rates going up, this is welcome news for borrowers. Last week, I wrote about Variable rates at Prime minus 1.09%. This week, the banks have caught on.

Continue reading “And the Variable Rate price wars begin… Here’s how you can benefit!”

TD & RBC raised the POSTED rate… but not their REAL rates

Rate Image, May 2018

Much has been written about last week’s Posted rate hikes by TD and RBC. Don’t panic! This is just their posted rate – it’s not the actual rate they give to clients.

I do, however, think we’ll see a minimal rate hike in the coming weeks due to five-year Government of Canada bond yields increasing slightly. Fixed rates are priced closely to bond yields.

Continue reading “TD & RBC raised the POSTED rate… but not their REAL rates”

Mortgage Penalties: You could pay thousands to break your mortgage depending on your lender!

Young family discussing family finances

I originally posted a breakdown of how mortgage penalties are calculated by different lenders on January 4, 2011.

This remains relevant today and, since this has been my most popular article to date, it’s worth a repost!

WE TOOK THE MYSTERY OUT OF HOW PENALTIES ARE CALCULATED

We decided this needed a more detailed explanation… but a strange thing happened when we started to answer these questions. We made a startling discovery. We caution you – the results could get your blood boiling if you’ve had to pay a penalty!

We found that the banks have shrunk or reduced the spreads between their Posted and Discounted rates on shorter-term mortgages over the past few years… and this has had a huge impact on Interest Rate Differential (IRD) penalty calculations. Continue reading “Mortgage Penalties: You could pay thousands to break your mortgage depending on your lender!”

Got a mortgage? Good news: Bank of Canada didn’t raise rates yesterday!

Blog Image, Your Best Mortgage is About More than Rate, Feb Mar 2018

Yesterday, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Stephen Poloz, left rates unchanged. This kept the bank prime rate at 3.45%.

This also, indirectly, affects fixed mortgage rates. Great news for anyone with a mortgage. Go ahead, it’s okay to feel good about paying a low interest rate on what’s probably the biggest debt of your life!

ARE ECONOMISTS RIGHT?

For months we’ve heard economists forecasting 2-4 BoC rate hikes for 2018. So far, we’ve had one increase – in January. Should we be expecting three more increases? Only time will tell, since the BoC raises its rate when inflation rises above the target inflation rate… currently the range is between 1% and 3%, and sits at an acceptable 2.10%. Some believe inflation has increased temporarily, in part, due to increased minimum wage.

Continue reading “Got a mortgage? Good news: Bank of Canada didn’t raise rates yesterday!”

BIG SIX BANKS exposed and called out by Financial Consumer Agency of Canada!

big-six-banks1

The BIG SIX BANKS have been caught. For those who still think the banker is your friend and is only looking out for your best interests, guess again. They’re in the business of selling and making money. The FCAC has finally reported what Financial Experts have known for years!

This report was recently released… but I wonder how soon it will be forgotten? And how much media attention will this important story really get?

Don’t forget, the BIG SIX BANKS are among the Top 10 Largest and most profitable corporations in Canada. They spend billions in marketing each year. That sort of advertising budget can make us forget about these types of announcements.

Continue reading “BIG SIX BANKS exposed and called out by Financial Consumer Agency of Canada!”

Yes, you can still buy a home in Canada… Keeping the dream alive

Homeownership Image, March 2018

Canada’s a nation of immigrants. It truly is the land of opportunity. Chances are, your parents, grandparents or great grandparents came here from another country.

There are many reasons why people left their homeland. Some left by choice to pursue a better life. Others had to leave for safety reasons. Whatever the reason, most of us have a common goal: A better life.

Homeownership has always been an important part of that dream. We want to own something. We want to plant roots. There’s a pile of statistics to support this claim. In my 28 years in the financial services industry, I can attest to this claim.

Continue reading “Yes, you can still buy a home in Canada… Keeping the dream alive”

A 2nd Bank of Canada rate hike surprises many.. what’s it mean?

 The Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz, has been full of surprises since he took on his current role.  With a second 0.25% rate hike today in consecutive BoC meetings, he’s pushed the rate to 1.00%.  This should result in a Bank Prime rate of 3.20%.   The move has surprised many experts as the economic indicators don’t justify a rate hike.

The move comes following last week’s surprising positive stats showing the Canadian economy grew by 4.5% in the 2nd quarter, according to stats Canada.   Could this be a knee jerk reaction?

Usually, the Bank of Canada increases rates when inflation rises above the Target level of between 1% and 3%.  A quick search on the BankofCanada.ca website and we see the inflation level is just 1.2%.   So, why raise the rate now?   According to the BoC press release, it’s all about that recent positive economic data. Hmmm, you have to wonder is they jumped the gun on this one?

WHAT’S THIS MEAN FOR MORTGAGE BORROWERS IN CANADA?

Standing back, we need to look at where current interest rates are in relation to historical rates.  With an expected Bank Prime rate set to increase by 0.25% (Banks usually follow and match the BoC rate movement except 2 yrs ago when the Boc cut the Target rate by 0.50% in 6 months, but the BIG SIX BANKS only cut their Prime rate by 0.30%, pocketing the difference and stumbling to explain why they would profit off the backs of Canadian consumers and businesses during an economic recovery…nice, huh?) This means the new Bank Prime rate will be 3.20%.

REALITY CHECK.

Are rates high? Are they low?  Historically, we are still in record low territory.   Fixed Mortgage rates are still just over 3.00% today.  Variable rate mortgages are 2.45% to 2.55%.    Hey, that’s not bad at all. In fact, it’s still great!  Too much emphasis has been put on these rate hikes, as though they would paralyze consumers from being able to spend or make their mortgage payments.   This is just untrue.

Canadians have had to qualify at Bank Posted 5 yr fixed rates for years, if you chose and Variable rate mortgage.  That means you had to pass the stress test using a rate that was 2.00% higher than your actual mortgage.   And what’s not talked about enough is that Canadians don’t just pay their minimum required payment.  They accelerate and increase their payments.  They pay more to pay the debt off faster!.  Canadians pay their mortgages off in around 17 yrs on average….with many paying them off in 12 years.

Bet ya didn’t know that?!

FUTURE RATE HIKES

Not likely.. at least not for a while.  These 2 consecutive rate hikes will be closely monitored to see how the consumer and the economy can absorb them.   If we start to see negative economic stats, we could see rate cuts.  It’s not out of the question and it wouldn’t be the first time the Bank of Canada had to reverse their increases.

Remember, we have seen major mortgage rule changes that have made it harder than EVER to qualify for a mortgage.  This lack of access to mortgage money is having a negative effect on the housing market.  Sales are down.  Prices have fallen (price decrease isn’t bad but we don’t want a free fall)..  Put it all together and you end up with less money flowing into the economy.   A slower economy usually means sustained low-interest rate environment… stay tuned folks..

MY ADVICE

If you are in a Variable rate mortgage, I would stay there.  Your rate is less than 3.00%.  Why would you want to lock in at over 3.00%?   If you are worried that rates could skyrocket, it’s unlikely given the fragile global economy and even our own economic instability.  However, if you can’t sleep at night because you are worried about the rates, and don’t mind paying a higher fixed rate for the assurance of knowing what your payment will be, then lock in or choose a fixed rate.   I’ll be staying in short term priced products like the Variable rate or a 2 or 3 yr term.  These products have proven to be the lowest cost products.

Your best interest is my only interest.   I reply to all questions and I welcome your comments.  Like this article?  Share with a friend.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

Bank of Canada rate hike.. it’s really not a big deal.

BREAKING NEWS… BANK OF CANADA RAISES RATE BY 0.25% AND THE SKY HASN’T FALLEN!!

Stephen Poloz, the Bank of Canada Governor, raised the Target rate by 0.25% to 0.75%.   Maybe now the media will move on to other news.

Seriously, aren’t we all kinda tired of hearing how rates are going to skyrocket,…how this is going to make our mortgages unaffordable… how we have record debt levels.. how we are going to default our mortgages, lose our homes and go into a recession…it’s doom and gloom?  This isn’t happening.

SOME FACTS ABOUT THE RATE HIKE Continue reading “Bank of Canada rate hike.. it’s really not a big deal.”

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