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Posted Interest rates

Bank of Canada suggests rate hikes soon…

The Bank of Canada met on Tuesday for the 3rd of eight scheduled meetings this year to set the Bank of Canada rate.  As expected, no rate change… But there were some language in the meeting that suggests we could start to see rates go up as early as this year…. here’s an article from The Star and reaction from TD’s Economist.

In short, it appears and I stress the word, appears, as though Mr. Carney is warning us that interest rates will be rising sometime soon.   But Economists aren’t buying into that warning just yet.   There is still too much uncertainly about the global, U.S. and domestic economies.    And as long as these concerns persist, then interest rates should remain low.

SOME EXPERTS DON’T BELIEVE ALL THE DOOM AND GLOOM STORIES

It’s true, we have experienced emergency interest rates for over 3 years now…  It’s no secret the govt is concerned about Canadians get into too much debt.  You’ve heard the figures.  The average Canadians owes around 153% of their annual income…. concerns about a housing bubble.   But how does that compare with the rest of the world?  Here’s an interesting article from the Financial Post’s Andrew Coyne, which says there are other countries that carry 200% and 300% of their annual income in personal debt… there doesn’t seem to be the level of concern about their economies.  So why are we in such a panic?

It appears we are at a point where rates could go up but a lot of things would have to fall into place before that happens… it could take 6, 9 months or even a few years before that happens… maybe longer…?   Any rate increase is sure to be slow….  Don’t panic… if you see an opportunity where you can benefit from these low rates, then act on it… don’t let the media scare you into inaction or lack of action…..

And as always, speak with a professional that can discuss and explain the different mortgage products and trends… make an informed choice.

Posted Interest rates

Flaherty is, isn’t, is, isn’t changing mortgage rules?

So which report do you want to believe….?  2 separate reports… both from April 10, 2012.     We have Reuter’s reporting that Canada’s Finance Minister Flaherty, isn’t making any changes to mortgage rules….  Click here for their report.   Here’s a quote from the article “I have no present plans to intervene in the housing market in Canada,” Flaherty told reporters in New York.

And here’s another report from Bloomberg.com entitled “Flaherty Says He’s Planning Changes on CMHC Rules.” Click here for their report.   Are you confused yet?    Well, you’re not alone.   The mixed messages are everywhere today.   Bank of Canada Carney warning about record high Personal Debt Levels…. you’ve seen this one, I’m sure.   We have too much personal debt… and then another report says Canadians are ready to tackle their debt level… and yet another one that say the economy is very fragile and is at risk of slowing down…

It’s hard to know which report is correct.   One thing is certain… today’s mortgage rates are at historical lows.   The govt and the BANKS don’t want them to last.     If you have a house and some debt, or if you are considering buying a house, then why wouldn’t you take advantage of these low rates…?   I’m NOT saying to go out and borrow more money for a TV or new car or other luxury items…  If you have high interest debt, or higher interest debt than today’s 3.00%+ interest rates, then take action and restructure your finances…   Today’s record low rates won’t last…  You can still benefit from these historically low interest rates.

 

Posted Interest rates

A change of strategy… Fixed rates… 5yr or 10 yr?

For years, I have recommended Variable rate mortgages over Fixed rates.   The reasons are simple:

  • Variable rate outperformed Fixed rates in over 88% of the time.
  • You could lock into a Fixed rate at anytime should interest rates go up.
  • you could exit the product at anytime with a maximum 3 month interest rate penalty (compared with Interest Rate Differential penalties for Fixed rates that vary depending on current rates.. we’ve seen 10, 14, 16 and even 20 months interest penalties charged in recent years).
  • If you were in a Variable rate the last 5 years, then you have enjoyed an average rate of around 2.92% compared with a 4.37% fixed rate (annual average rate over last 5 yrs).    It’s been the least expensive way to own your home…  (my clients have saved between 1.45% and 3.00% per year on their mortgages over the past 5 years based on my recommendation).

But then, in August 2011, the Banks caught on.  They decided they wouldn’t offer those great Variable Rates or Prime less 0.75% (3.00% less 0.75% = 2.25%).  They all raised the price on new Variable rate mortgages to Prime less 0.00%.    And this year we have seen 5 year fixed rates hover at around 3.19% to 3.39%…  10 year fixed has also come down to 3.99% and 3.94%.

So what’s the strategy today?  What’s the least expensive way to own your home?     Here are some answers…

If you have Prime less 0.50%  or better, then considering sticking with it.

The fact is, over 80% of my clients are in a Variable rate mortgage of Prime less 0.50% or better.   They have enjoyed huge savings, especially over the last 5 years. I’m not too anxious to have them start paying a higher rate….. Instead of locking into a 5 or 10 yr Fixed rate, why not set your Variable rate payment based on the higher Fixed rates…  You’ll pay more towards principal and pay the mortgage off faster.

If you’re getting a new mortgage or your mortgage is coming up for renewal, then I would consider a Fixed rate term..

This might shock many of my clients and regular readers, but I can’t recommend taking a new 5 year Variable rate based on today’s pricing…  It’s time to look at Fixed rates…  The term will depend on your own personal situation, goals and needs.   5 year fixed (currently 3.29%) is looking like a good choice for many today… But a 1 year fixed (2.89%) might also we a good choice…   One product that is attracting more attention is the 10 year fixed rate (3.89% to 3.94%)… It’s never been under 4.00%… so many people are recommending it… But I’m not so sure about it…. After all, if you were to pay this mortgage out before the first 5 years, you would be faced with a monster penalty!   10, 14, 18 months worth of interest … maybe more…  On the positive side, if you paid the mortgage out after 5 years, the penalty is capped at 3 months interest.

If we compare the 5 yr fixed vs the 10 yr fixed, we can look at a number of different scenarios… but here’s a really simple one to look at…The question is, how much will rates have to increase by in order for you to be further ahead?

If you took a 5 yr fixed rate today at 3.29% but set your payments based on today’s 10 yr fixed of 3.94%, then at the end of the first 5 years, you would have to renew at a rate of 4.75% or higher, before you start to win with a 10 yr fixed rate.     So this is where the unknown comes in to play…  and the unknown can cause fear and panic…     But it can also mean opportunity…  Will interest rates be 2.00% higher than they are today??   Will Variable rate pricing come back to normal and again be the product of choice?  Will there be a new product that is even better than today?    I don’t know the answer… but I think 10 years is just too long of a term to commit to…Things change faster today…   Can we really make plans for 10 yrs?  Remember, if we need to refinance or sell, there is mortgage penalty to deal with….this can blow the savings right out the window…  A lot of what if’s…    I’d probably stick with 5 yr fixed today or go shorter term…

A last thought and point of reflection..

Interest rates have remained below average for the last 10 years…  They have been at record lows over the past 4 years due to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the longer than expected global and US economic recovery…..  Interest rates are expected to go up…  the big question is, when??   Regardless of the answer, shorter terms have ALWAYS been a better choice when it comes to mortgages… don’t be so quick to jump into a 5 or 10 year fixed rate… speak with your mortgage broker and get some advice.   Banks want borrowers to be afraid.. they want you to remain unsure…  They want you to lock into the longest term possible because this is where they earn the most $$profit….   Don’t be so quick to contribute the Bank’s profit margin….

Posted Interest rates

Mortgage wars end?…only for the BIG SIX Banks…

March 29th, 2012 is going to be remembered as the day when the BIG SIX Banks ended their Mortgage War.   Well, at least for now.  Rates are up around 0.50% at Retail Branches of the BIG SIX  Banks.  (don’t worry, Mortgage Broker rates haven’t gone up that much and are lower than any of the so-called discounted or special rates advertised by the BIG SIX Banks.)

In what was an unprecedented, public fight for your mortgage, the BIG SIX Banks pulled down their pants and showed how low they can really go with their rates.   We saw BMO come out with their 2.99% NO FRILLS mortgage… ( a product we wouldn’t recommend to anyone due to it’s restrictions, limitations and penalty calculations).    Unfortunately, too many borrowers don’t look beyond the rate and have signed on for this product..   They will have to deal with the consequences in the years to come.

RBC fired back with a pretty good rate of 2.99% for 4 years… It didn’t have the restrictions or limitations but it still had that unfair penalty calculation.   RBC also took some public shots at the BMO product, through the media and their own website.   It was great to see some real competition take place among our BIG BANKS.    There is always a winner in this war.   You the borrower.

TD, Scotiabank, National Bank and CIBC all followed with a similar 4 year fixed rate at 2.99%.   But they still had that same penalty calculation formula I absolutely don’t like.

“Canadian lenders appear to be extremely slow to pass on changes in the Bank Rate to their customers.”  Anyone remember that quote?  That’s a direct quote from the Bank of Canada review entitled ‘Competition in the Canadian Mortgage Market’.

Here’s another one from the same report “borrowers who use a mortgage broker pay less, on average, than borrowers who negotiate with lenders directly”.

The good news about all this rate war stuff is that we saw even better mortgage products being offered through the Mortgage Broker channel.  Remember these quotes the next time you are shopping for a mortgage.

Posted Interest rates

The Star reports BMO suggests it’s time to lock into fixed rates…. well, maybe..

I had a discussion with The Toronto Star’s Susan Pigg about Fixed and Variable rates.  Click here to read my comments in this article.

In short, BMO Captial Markets says it’s time to lock into a Fixed rate…. Well maybe, but I would caution anyone that had a BMO variable rate mortgage to think twice about locking into BMO’s well publicized 2.99% 5 year NO FRILLS mortgage.   This product has limitations and restrictions that make it impossible to get out of the mortgage without selling your home.   There are better options out there…  you can get a great rate without sacrificing your options and privileges.

You also have to factor in the infamous BIG SIX BANK penalty calculation.  We’ve written about this before.  This could cost you dearly should you wish to refinance or have to pay the mortgage out before maturity.   We have seen numerous cases of Bank prepayment penalties adding up to 12, 14, 18 and 20 months worth on interest.  That’s right, 20 months worth of interest.   Don’t get held hostage by your mortgage provider.

If you have a Variable Rate mortgage that is price at Prime less 0.50% or lower, I would stick with it…  If you are higher than this or if you mortgage is coming up for renewal, then you should consider a Fixed Rate mortgage…  And the only reason to consider Fixed rates is because they are priced so close to what a Variable rate could be had for today…  Best Variable is around Prime less 0.25%… that’s 2.75%.  Best 5 yr Fixed  with ALL FRILLS is around 3.19%…

But before you make any decision, please speak with an unbiased advisor, like a mortgage broker…. Find out which product is right for you…  Everyone is different and we all have different needs.  There are so many unadvertised specials these days….  Your Mortgage Broker can access these products and  also help explain the differences in penalty calculations and why this should be looked at more closely, even it you don’t think penalties apply to you…