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Posted Mortgage News

CIBC Economist gives us the stats

CIBC Senior Economist, Ben Tal, spoke at this year’s annual Mortgage Broker conference in Montreal.  The conference, organized by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, is a great place for Mortgage Brokers to meet all the Lenders and service providers under one roof.

It’s also a great opportunity to hear some of Canada’s experts talk about the economy, real estate, interest rates and the mortgage market.  Here are a few highlights from Mr. Tal’s presentation.

-there are 12.5million households in Canada…31% rent, 69% own..

-of the 69% that own, 39.9% have a mortgage and 28.9% have no mortgage.

-69% of homeowners with a mortgage have more than 20% equity in their homes… only 30% have less than 20% equity in their homes.

-Renters have excellent cashflow… 96% of renters are using less than 40% of their income to pay for all their debts… so in reality, these renters could qualify for a mortgage based on their debt servicing ratios.. (most lenders allow borrowers to use up to 42% of their gross income towards a mortgage payment)…

One more comment that caught our attention was about Variable rate mortgages vs. Fixed rate… The historical data is overwhelmingly in favour of Variable rates….it’s really been a no-brainer… But what about now?  Fixed rates are at historical lows…  Mr. Tal said that Fixed rates might outperform Variable rate over the next 5 years… BUT it is so close that a 0.50% increase in Fixed rates would probably tip the scales back in favour of Variable…

That being said, we must also consider the flexibility of a Variable Rate product.. it does allow one to lock into a fixed rate at any time and it does allow for an early exit at a minimal cost….   For me, Variable rate is still better choice…for most of us.

Posted 2 Comments on What mortgage product does your bank want you to take? Case study

What mortgage product does your bank want you to take?

Here are some interesting stats…

-A Variable rate mortgage outperforms a fixed rate mortgage in over 88% of the time… According the Milevsky study done earlier this decade and updated in 2008….

-Variable rate mortgages have been at least 1.00% lower than the 5 year fixed rate mortgage over the past 25 years….and on occasion, better by as much as 2.00%.

-Canadians move every 3 years on average…meaning they must either refinance their mortgage or pay it out.

-a Variable rate mortgage has a fixed penalty of 3 months interest.

-a 5 year fixed rate mortgage has a penalty that is at least 3 months interest but has no limit…. and in the past 18 months, we have seen penalties of 6, 10 and even 14 months worth of interest.

-yet, 66% of Canadians have a 5 year fixed rate mortgage…

Is the 5 year fixed rate mortgage really the right product for 66% of Canadians?    Can the 5 year fixed rate mortgage be the right product for everyone?  Which mortgage product do you think your bank wants you to choose?

By the way, can you guess which mortgage product is the most profitable?…. you guessed it.. the 5 year fixed rate.

Make sure your Mortgage Broker does a needs analysis before they recommend a mortgage product for you…. There is no ‘one size fits all’ when it comes to mortgages….  Ask yourself, ‘who is this mortgage best for’…. my bank or me?

Posted Mortgage News

Don’t expect new mortgage penalty laws til next year…maybe.

Mr. Potter would be proud

Seeing that it’s near Christmas, I thought this old classic movie pic was appropriate for today’s topic.  “The house always wins” (in case you can’t read the small print).   And how true that is…

It sounds like the long-awaited Federal Govt’s Standardization of Prepayment Penalties won’t happen til some time next year at the earliest….maybe.    A good source told me that the Govt wants to put that Bill through together with several other Finance laws…..but I’m beginning to wonder if they will make any changes at the pace they are going.

The Bank lobbyist’s have done their jobs well.   Mr. Potter would be proud.   Record low mortgage rates brought us record high mortgage penalties.   6, 10 and even 14 months of interest were charged as prepayment penalties to Canadian borrowers in the past 20 months.   To put it another way, we have seen penalties of $10,000, $20,000 and more. Continue reading “Don’t expect new mortgage penalty laws til next year…maybe.”

Posted Interest rates

Inflation rises to highest level in 2 years…but don’t panic

Latest figures show inflation jumped 2.4% in October according to Statistics Canada… compared with 1.9% in September.    The Bank of Canada aims for an inflation rate of between 1% and 3%.    Anything over 2% can trigger the Bank of Canada to take action… Usually, a hike in the Bank of Canada Rate, which affects Variable Rate Mortgages..

However, it’s no reason to panic.  A one month inflation spike probably isn’t enough for the Bank of Canada (BOC) to take drastic action.  It’s probably gonna take consecutive months of higher inflation or other events before the BOC raise rates again.  Most experts believe the Bank of Canada will not make any changes til next year.

Throw in some Global issues like Ireland’s’ debt and the Korean conflict heating up and you get uncertainty… Uncertainty means rates should stay low for some time…

Posted Mortgage News

Annual CAAMP conference Nov 21-23

The annual Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) conference is being held this weekend in Montreal.  CAAMP is the National association for Mortgage Brokers and Lenders with over 12,00o members representing over 1,700 companies.

The conference is a great place to see all the Lenders, Mortgage Insurers, Brokers and other industry product suppliers under one roof.   It’s also a great time to hear about new products, trends and Economist’s forecasts for 2011….  (forecasts are difficult to make during a recovery so I’m sure we’ll be paying attention to what is and what is not said).

To me, the best part of the conference  has always been the Trade show or the Expo.  This is where we can meet everyone in one room, at one time… and on a one on one basis….  One suggestion for CAAMP… expand the time of the Trade show…3 hours isn’t enough to visit all the booths…  perhaps cut out some of the speakers…no disrespect intended to the speakers….

For more information visit the conference website at http://www.mortgageconference.ca.