Skip to content

CategoryMortgage Trends

Posted Mortgage News

CMHC mortgage insurance rates increasing but still cheaper than 10 yrs ago.

CMHCCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) announced they will be increasing the cost of insurance premiums effective May 1st.   The premium increase is minimal and isn’t expected to slow the mortgage volumes (see below for cost changes).  The move isn’t that puzzling given that CMHC’s most recent financial statements from 2013 show their volumes are down due to the Federal govt mortgage rule changes… but interestingly, profits were up 11% for the first nine months of 2013.

CMHC made $1.27billion as of September 30th 2013.   Not bad for a crown corporation that was created to encourage home ownership in Canada. CMHC puts a lot of money in the government coffers.   Arrears are lower at 0.33%.. that’s considered extremely low.    Some would say this is just a cash grab.  But I think it’s just being proactive as taking action before the expected volumes decrease.

CMHC PREMIUMS ARE STILL CHEAPER THAN THEY WERE 10 YEAR AGO

But here’s the bright side.   Continue reading “CMHC mortgage insurance rates increasing but still cheaper than 10 yrs ago.”

Posted 2 Comments on Bank of Canada says no rate hikes, but possible rate drops!! Mortgage News

Bank of Canada says no rate hikes, but possible rate drops!!

stephen poloz  Last week, the Bank of Canada governor, Stephen Poloz, held the first of 8 scheduled meetings to set the Target Rate.    This is the rate used to set the Bank Prime rate which currently sits at 3.00%.   No surprise, no change in the rate.  It has been the same since Sept 2010.

From 2011 to 2013, the previous Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney, continually announced of a pending rate increase.   But late last year, Poloz changed the tide when he announced it could be a few years before rates go up.   One of the key drivers for rate hikes is inflation.  The BoC target for inflation is between 1% and 3%.  If inflation goes above 3%, we can expect rate hikes.

Inflation is not a concern.  In fact, there are concerns about deflation as the current inflation rate sit at 1.2%.  Some experts believe we could see the BoC rate drop.  Great news for anyone in a Variable rate.   We are also seeing the govt of Cda bond yields drop.   Friday’s close was down to 1.59% for 5 yr bonds.  Haven’t seen that level since June 2013.   This means Fixed mortgage rates will probably go down further. Continue reading “Bank of Canada says no rate hikes, but possible rate drops!!”

Posted Case study

Buy now or wait for house prices to fall? The results may surprise you…

Housing-affordability

Should I buy now with interest rates still hovering at record lows, or wait for prices to fall?   When will house prices fall? … and by how much?    What will the interest rate be in the future when house prices fall?

These are the questions most Canadians asking themselves these days.   It’s no secret that Real Estate values are at an all time high in most parts of the country.   The calls for a housing correction, crash, or bubble have been going on for almost 10 years now but it hasn’t materialized.

I won’t get into the discussion here about whether house values will drop or crash or when that could happen.. because I don’t think it should be part of the buying decision.   That’s not a typo.  Market timing is a dangerous thing.  Stock advisors will tell you this.  Buy now, if you are able to commit to the plan.  Read on to see why I believe this to be true. Continue reading “Buy now or wait for house prices to fall? The results may surprise you…”

Posted Mortgage News

Unexpected job loss report and effect on mortgage rates.

unemployment Last week’s Employment Stats shocked everyone when we didn’t see the expected 14,000 new jobs created as Economists were expecting.  Instead, we got hit with a reported 46,000 jobs lost in December.    Economists aren’t always accurate with their forecasts (news flash) but they usually aren’t this far off either. We won’t look at why they miscalculated here, but I do want to look at the effects of this bad news on your mortgage.

EFFECT ON FIXED MORTGAGE RATES

Higher unemployment and job loss is never a good thing.  We’re not celebrating here.   But we need to understand how it affects our mortgage rates.     When it comes to rates, bad economic news is good news.    And we saw the effects almost immediately.  Bond yields dropped by around 0.15% to 1.73%, taking the pressure off Lenders to raise rates (fixed mortgage rates are priced closely to Govt of Cda bond yields).   This means fixed mortgages won’t go up anytime soon and could even fall should the bond yields remain at this level. Continue reading “Unexpected job loss report and effect on mortgage rates.”

Posted Mortgage News

CMHC’s Ontario Housing conference 2014 highlights: the news is good!

CMHCA few weeks ago, I attended CMHC’s Ontario Housing Market Outlook conference.  This annual conference provides Financial experts with an insight into some of the best data available.    Now, in case you didn’t know it, CMHC probably has the largest database of information in Canada.  So when they publish stats and make forecasts, we need to listen.

This year’s speakers included Ted Tsiakopoulos, Regional Economist CMHC, Ed Heese, Senior Market Analyst CMHC, Dave McLean, President Mattamy Homes (Canada’s largest home builder) and Peter Zimmerman, Director of Development Freed Developments (highrise condo builders).   I really enjoyed hearing Ted speak.  His presentation was backed up by a wealth of stats.   Let’s see if you agree about the forecast. Continue reading “CMHC’s Ontario Housing conference 2014 highlights: the news is good!”