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Posted Interest rates

Bank of Canada suggests rate hikes soon…

The Bank of Canada met on Tuesday for the 3rd of eight scheduled meetings this year to set the Bank of Canada rate.  As expected, no rate change… But there were some language in the meeting that suggests we could start to see rates go up as early as this year…. here’s an article from The Star and reaction from TD’s Economist.

In short, it appears and I stress the word, appears, as though Mr. Carney is warning us that interest rates will be rising sometime soon.   But Economists aren’t buying into that warning just yet.   There is still too much uncertainly about the global, U.S. and domestic economies.    And as long as these concerns persist, then interest rates should remain low.

SOME EXPERTS DON’T BELIEVE ALL THE DOOM AND GLOOM STORIES

It’s true, we have experienced emergency interest rates for over 3 years now…  It’s no secret the govt is concerned about Canadians get into too much debt.  You’ve heard the figures.  The average Canadians owes around 153% of their annual income…. concerns about a housing bubble.   But how does that compare with the rest of the world?  Here’s an interesting article from the Financial Post’s Andrew Coyne, which says there are other countries that carry 200% and 300% of their annual income in personal debt… there doesn’t seem to be the level of concern about their economies.  So why are we in such a panic?

It appears we are at a point where rates could go up but a lot of things would have to fall into place before that happens… it could take 6, 9 months or even a few years before that happens… maybe longer…?   Any rate increase is sure to be slow….  Don’t panic… if you see an opportunity where you can benefit from these low rates, then act on it… don’t let the media scare you into inaction or lack of action…..

And as always, speak with a professional that can discuss and explain the different mortgage products and trends… make an informed choice.

Posted Interest rates

Mortgage wars end?…only for the BIG SIX Banks…

March 29th, 2012 is going to be remembered as the day when the BIG SIX Banks ended their Mortgage War.   Well, at least for now.  Rates are up around 0.50% at Retail Branches of the BIG SIX  Banks.  (don’t worry, Mortgage Broker rates haven’t gone up that much and are lower than any of the so-called discounted or special rates advertised by the BIG SIX Banks.)

In what was an unprecedented, public fight for your mortgage, the BIG SIX Banks pulled down their pants and showed how low they can really go with their rates.   We saw BMO come out with their 2.99% NO FRILLS mortgage… ( a product we wouldn’t recommend to anyone due to it’s restrictions, limitations and penalty calculations).    Unfortunately, too many borrowers don’t look beyond the rate and have signed on for this product..   They will have to deal with the consequences in the years to come.

RBC fired back with a pretty good rate of 2.99% for 4 years… It didn’t have the restrictions or limitations but it still had that unfair penalty calculation.   RBC also took some public shots at the BMO product, through the media and their own website.   It was great to see some real competition take place among our BIG BANKS.    There is always a winner in this war.   You the borrower.

TD, Scotiabank, National Bank and CIBC all followed with a similar 4 year fixed rate at 2.99%.   But they still had that same penalty calculation formula I absolutely don’t like.

“Canadian lenders appear to be extremely slow to pass on changes in the Bank Rate to their customers.”  Anyone remember that quote?  That’s a direct quote from the Bank of Canada review entitled ‘Competition in the Canadian Mortgage Market’.

Here’s another one from the same report “borrowers who use a mortgage broker pay less, on average, than borrowers who negotiate with lenders directly”.

The good news about all this rate war stuff is that we saw even better mortgage products being offered through the Mortgage Broker channel.  Remember these quotes the next time you are shopping for a mortgage.

Posted 1 Comment on When opportunity knocks…open the door. Interest rates

When opportunity knocks…open the door.

It’s March, 2012.   How will you look back at this month in 5 years time?    There are certain dates in history that stand out for all of us.   Some are more personal than others, like the birth of my son, the day I met my wife, my first trip overseas, NHL pro hockey camp, etc.

And then there are dates where I look back at missed opportunities.

-October 1984, I had a chance to buy a waterfront lot on Balsam Lake in Ontario’s cottage country, for $22,000…. now selling for $400,000.   There was a new condo in east Toronto for $82,000 in September 1987…. now selling for $392,000….(and yes, I think I was 5 years old…Lol!)..

-Or how about that semi-detached house at Danforth Ave and Woodbine, in Toronto, for $175,000 in 1990….now selling for $500,000.    More recently, I could have bought a house for $320,000 in 2005, near the water in Burlington, Ontario…..that same house sold for $800,000 last year.

The point it, I think we will look back at March 2012 as the month when the Banks declared mortgage war against each other…  Only in this war, there is a winner… YOU, the consumer, YOU the borrower, YOU the investor.   We are seeing record low mortgage rates.   And they won’t last forever.  In fact, this mortgage war is probably going to accelerate interest rate hikes…  almost like starting a campfire with gasoline soaked wood… It’s burning red hot but it won’t last for long.

With interest rates are record lows, isn’t this the time to borrow?    A $300,000 mortgage will carry for $1196/mth.. and that’s with a 5 year fixed rate term.  Bond yields are climbing… 5 yr bond yields are up to 1.71%.. that’s up 30bps in less than a month… 5 year fixed rates follow bond movement… i think it’s safe to say, we should expect rates to climb in the near future… and the reason they haven’t moved yet is because of the Mortgage wars…

We are hearing the cries by the govt and some bankers, telling us not to borrow too much.  Personal Debt level concerns are plastered all over the internet and media.   But we aren’t seeing many articles telling us how to borrow and invest wisely…. borrow when rates are low instead of borrowing when rates are high… borrow when you qualify instead of borrowing when you don’t… borrow when you don’t need the money…   Isn’t that when Banks want to lend you the money?

We have just seen a draft guideline, Bill B-20,  entered in for review with a May 1st decision date.   These new regulations are aimed at tightening lending rules even further.. and this time it’s targeting Home Equity Lines of Credit..   That’s right, they want to make it even harder to qualify for these products and possibly make the repayment terms more strict…

Opportunity is knocking… answer the door..

Posted 1 Comment on Why use a Mortgage Broker Case study

Why use a Mortgage Broker

There was an article in the Globe and Mail recently entitled ‘Why use a mortgage broker?’.    No, this image wasn’t part of the article but it’s an image that many  will conjure up when we hear the word ‘Banker’.

The article talks about why Financial Planners and other professionals will recommend, and work with,  a Mortgage Broker vs. having the client go directly to the Bank.  Here’s a few quotes from the article that make it easy to understand.

  • “It’s the most efficient way to get the best-priced and best-structured mortgage”.
  • “So rather than shopping at multiple financial institutions and negotiating with each financial institution and arm wrestling them to give you the best deal, it’s one phone call and they do the rest for you.”

And here’s some facts from a Bank of Canada review published in February 2011 entitled ‘Competition in the Canadian Mortgage Market’:

  •  This one is no surprise…. “The results also indicate that borrowers who use a mortgage broker pay less, on average, than borrowers who negotiate with lenders directly”. 
  • Here’s one that may surprise many of you…  “The results also indicate that higher income households pay higher rates, on average, than lower-income households.”
  • And here’s another one…  “Banks also offer larger discounts to new clients than to existing clients.”

I’ll add a few more of my own….   A broker shops the market…doesn’t work for any one lender but instead works for the borrower….. and provides the borrower with clear, neutral and unbiased advice.    Brokers save borrowers money and will continue to shop for better rates at renewal and throughout the life of the mortgage…

Posted Mortgage Products

Stock market drop and slight recovery.

Did you know that between July 22nd and August 8th, the TSX index dropped 14%?   Did you know that since August 8th, it has recovered 9% of that loss?  What a roller coaster ride…But there’s good news here…

So how will this affect your mortgage rates?

Fixed mortgage rates are priced from the 5 year Cda govt bonds.. Bond yields also dropped like a rock.. from 2.27% to 1.35% during that same time period…  that’s a 0.92% decrease.  A visit to TD Bank’s website shows us their ‘5 year fixed rate Special offer’ is 4.19%... no drop at all.   Call a Mortgage broker and you’ll see rates of around 3.49% today.

Sure, fixed rates are very low but they should be lower….  Fixed rates are usually priced around 1.30% to 1. 70% above the 5 year bond yield…  Why haven’t you seen mortgage rates keep pace with the bond yield drop?   That’s not hard to figure out… The Banks are maximizing their profits… same old story…Banks are infamous for hiking rates quickly and but slow to move when it comes to cutting rates.

How about Variable rates?

Well, not much to report there… The Bank of Canada meets 8 times a year.   Last meeting was July 19th.  Next meeting is Sept 7th.    You can forget about any immediate rate hike.   Economists have done an about-face with their forecasts…. We were expecting a rate hike this September or October… That’s now been pushed back to 2012… and there were even some rumblings about a possible BOC rate cut (but I’m not sure that’s gonna happen).

At 3.00%, the Bank Prime rate is still very, very low and makes borrowing very attractive…   Current Variable rate mortgages are priced at between Prime less 0.65% to 0.80%…    We may not see interest rates drop, but there is no reason for them to go up for the next little while…. Enjoy the low rates.