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TagMortgage Rates

Posted Interest rates

Wanna know where rates are going? Look at 2 yr bond yields.

Probably the most popular question asked is, “where are rates heading?”  Or “when will they go up?”   Let’s face it, if you have a mortgage or are invested in real estate, then you better know the answer or understand what affects rates.  After all, interest rates can make or break a housing market.

We decided to take a few minutes to explain how you can follow the indicators that affect interest rate movement….  We won’t make you a Financial Expert, but you will gain a better understanding of what affects rate movements…

My first suggestion is to stop paying so much attention to the news or TV… (apologies to my media friends)… but the wild headlines are there to grab your attention…  it’s not that difficult to understand…

Last week, the Bank of Canada met for the 5th time in 2012.   There are 8 scheduled meetings each year… (and by the way, this helps to keep rate movement and monetary policy more predictable…. the more predictable a Govt is, the more stable it’s economy is.)   The Key Rate is set during these meetings… this rate directly affects Variable rate mortgages…. No surprise, the Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney, kept the rate unchanged.

That means Bank Prime is still 3.00%.   And with more negative economic news from Greece, Spain, other parts of Europe, the U.S, and now Canada, it’s safe to say rates should remain flat for some time……(remember, bad economic news usually means rates will drop or stay low).

So the Bank of Canada’s Key Rate (also known as Target Rate or Overnight rate) directly affects Variable rate mortgages… but indirectly, they also affect Fixed Rates.   A better short term indicator to watch is the 5 yr Govt of Cda bond yield.   We watch this to see where fixed rates are headed in the short term… say, over the next few days or or few weeks.   A good long term indicator for Fixed rates is the 2 yr Gov of Cda bond yields.   Financial Experts  pay very close attention to this index if they want to know where rates are going in 6 months or longer.  And at present, the 2 yr yields are very low…..

Bottom line, rates should remain low for some time…   Not so hard to follow, right?

And not to confuse you, but historically, Fixed rates usually go up ahead of Variable rates…. so we need to watch Bond yields together, with the Bank of Canada’s Key Rate to gauge where rates are going…

Hope this helps… and as always, feel free to call or email me…

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114

steve@mortgagenow.ca

Posted 5 Comments on Beware of your Bank’s ‘special’ renewal offer…. it could cost you dearly. Mortgage Rates

Beware of your Bank’s ‘special’ renewal offer…. it could cost you dearly.

Spring is the home buying season.   Summer is the mortgage renewal season.    It’s been that way for as long as I can remember.   Most of us want to move in the summer months when it’s warmer and when kids are out of school.

Once again we’re seeing the BANKs calling borrowers ahead of their actual renewal date.    And once again, they’re counting on you believing they have your best interest at heart.   And once again, I’m here to warn you against signing those offers without having a discussion with your Mortgage Broker.   In most cases, if not all, those offers aren’t that ‘special’.

Here’s just one example of that trust costing this Scotiabank client $3,000.

Just this week, Scotiabank offered one of my clients a renewal at  3.49% for a 5 year fixed rate…Does sound familiar to anyone?  It sounded great to him.   But for some reason, the client didn’t return my calls, my emails or letters about their upcoming renewal.   And I can understand, sometimes life just gets in the way.   Besides, it’s Scotiabank…surely, they’ll have this repeat client’s best interest in mind?   Surely, they will offer him the absolute best rate?

Guess again…  By signing that renewal, and not calling me to verify how competitive the interest rate really was, the client will end up paying around $3,000 more in interest charges over the next 5 years… on a $200,000 mortgage balance.   Today’s best 5 yr fixed rates are hovering around 3.19%.   The real cost could actually end up being more than $3,000 if the client needs to refinance or pay the mortgage off before the 5 years is up.   That’s because Scotiabank, like the rest of the BIG SIX BANKs, uses a prepayment penalty calculation that has the client paying for the original discount given at the time of mortgage funding.    This method of calculating penalties is NOT used by all Lenders but it IS used by all of the BIG SIX BANKs.

But we need to also be aware of other Lenders that are offering those too good to be true deals… If you see lower rates, beware.. there’s probably a catch.   It could be a NO FRILLS mortgage or some sort of hidden exit fee or penalty.

Don’t take any chances….  Call your Mortgage Broker.  One phone call could have saved this client $3,000.   If you don’t have a broker, feel free to call me.  We’re here to help.

Steve Garganis

1 866 812 0516

Posted Mortgage News

US govt debt crisis and a slower Canadian economy

It seems US has reached a compromise on the debt ceiling and another crisis avoided.    President Obama and the Republicans have come to an agreement.   read more here.

We already knew the US was on shaky economic ground… no one really knew how a US debt default would affect Canada or the rest of the world.   It certainly wouldn’t be a good thing.

But before we can breathe a sigh of relief, Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in May.  The largest single month drop since May 2009.  This unexpected drop is good news for those of us with mortgages.

Interest rates are expected to remain low for this year.   And a Bank of Canada rate hike is less likely in September or even October.

Enjoy the low rates.

Posted 19 Comments on CBC news reports Scotiabank slams client with $30,000 penalty! Case study

CBC news reports Scotiabank slams client with $30,000 penalty!

A word about world events the past 4 weeks…  We have seen a lot of turmoil overseas……  Egypt, Libya  and other middle east countries…. We need to pay attention…. Let’s hope for an immediate and peaceful resolution…

The Tsunami in Japan has been horrible… the images on TV are tough to watch…what a tragedy… Our hearts go out to the people of that nation.

Fixed rates drop slightly and Variable rates remain flat.

We have also seen how mortgage rates can be affected by these events… The uncertainty has caused the Bond market to fall…. and we even saw a very small rate reduction by the Big Banks… Posted Fixed rates are down around 10bps… 5 yr fixed is 5.34%. Continue reading “CBC news reports Scotiabank slams client with $30,000 penalty!”

Posted Mortgage Trends

Scotiabank says Bank of Canada won’t move till October

Last week, the Bank of Canada (BOC) kept it’s Target Rate unchanged for the 4th consecutive meeting.  That’s means Bank Prime is still 3.00%.  Many Experts and Economists think the next rate hike will come as early as April or as late as June….

But not all Economists agree.  Scotiabank’s economists say the rate will remain unchanged til October.   They give a detailed explanation as outlined in this National Post article... but the main reasons are:

  • high $Canadian Dollar (an increase by BOC usually increases the $CAD)
  • global uncertainty… the middle east turmoil and European debt worries
  • tougher financing rules including the new mortgage rules
  • U.S. Fed not expected to raise their rate til next year…any increase by the BOC would push the $CAD even higher and make our exports even more expensive
  • possible Federal election in Canada coming soon.. and provincial elections this year…  history tells us that rates are usually flat during election time.

The Scotiabank economist make a good argument.   I like the political reason… History shows us politics play a big role in the BOC actions….  Enjoy the low rates… They seem to be here for a while.