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Posted 2 Comments on BMO announces lower rate IF you take a shorter amortization! Interest rates

BMO announces lower rate IF you take a shorter amortization!

Have you heard the big news?   BMO lowers rate their best discounted 5 year fixed rate to 3.49%  to encourage Canadians to take an amortization 25 years or less.  They claim they want to encourage Canadians to pay their debt off faster…..  Sounds nice and in keeping with the Christmas spirit, doesn’t it?

Ok, before we get all warm-hearted and teary eyed, let’s take a closer look at what this really is.    First, this IS NOT the best discounted fixed rate in the market.   A good Mortgage Broker can get you 3.39% out there with no restrictions on amortization (even lower with some No Frills mortgage products).   We all want to pay our mortgage off faster, but choosing a shorter amortization only limits your future options…   My recommendation to almost all my clients is to take the longest amortization possible……

It’s not that I want you to have a mortgage forever, it’s about having options….  I always take a ‘what if’ approach….   Follow me for a minute…

Let’s say you had a $300,000 mortgage and you took this BMO 3.49% rate,  your payments on a 25 year amortization with be $1496.23/mth.   But if you took a truly discounted mortgage at 3.39% with a 35 year amortization, your minimum payment would be $1216.75/mth.   You could always INCREASE your payment to accelerate your amortization to 25 years or shorter.

Now, let’s say you lost your job, had some unexpected expense come up, or a financial emergency or just needed to lower your payments.   If you chose 25 year amort, then you are stuck with that payment.. if you chose 35 year, then you can always go back to that lower payment…    That’s the flexibility that we want.  It’s not about taking longer to pay, it’s about having the option to reduce your payment if needed.

LET’S NOT FORGET THE BANKS HISTORY WHEN IT COMES TO RATES

In keeping with the Christmas theme, Mr. Potter would be approve the Banks latest strategy.   In case you didn’t know, the 5 year Canada Bond is in record low territory…. hovering at around  1.31%… the 5 year fixed rates are priced from the bonds… the spread is normally around 1.25% to 1.40%… and yet today, the spread is 2.18%…. WOW!  and why?  TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS.   This is has nothing to do with wanting to helps Canadians. 5 year fixed rates should be under 3.00% but they aren’t, because the Banks want to maximize profits.

VARIABLE RATE PRICING IS AT 1990’s LEVEL

Variable rate pricing went from Prime less 0.90%, 3 years ago, to Prime plus 1.00% in during the October 2008 US mortgage crisis, to Prime less 0.75% just six months ago…. to Prime plus 0.20% today.    That’s right, Prime PLUS 0.20%.  Haven’t seen this pricing since the ’90s.  There are no fundamental reasons for this… it’s simply profit taking by the banks.. they are forcing us to take a 5 year fixed rate.   Sure, today’s 5 year fixed rates are at historical lows, so there is very little attention being given… but when rates go up, and they will in a few years, we will start to ask for more competitive products and better options other than a 5 year fixed rate….  (Can you see Mr. Potter’s grin getting larger?).

My advice… think about who your banker works for….and who your Mortgage Broker works for….

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Canadians saved $2.7billion on their mortgage by refinancing or renewing this year.

Variable rate mortgages have been extremely popular.   A study by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) showed that 37% of Canadians took a Variable rate last year, compared 31% from the year prior.

And Canadians saved almost $2.7billion by renewing or refinancing their mortgages this year.   Wow, that’s a lot of money… maybe too much?   The banks have put a lot of pressure on borrowers NOT to take Variable… they’ve made it harder to qualify by getting the govt involved and having them qualify all new Variable rate clients with posted 5 year fixed rates…. And most recently, the Banks have jacked up their Variable rate pricing from Prime less 0.75%, 0.80% and even 0.90%, to Prime less 0.00% and even Prime PLUS 0.10%.

Watch for the Banks to hike fixed rates as they aren’t earning enough… or so they tell us…

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Fixed vs Variable in 2011

FIXED RATES MAKE MORE SENSE TODAY.

If you were  in a Variable rate mortgage over the last 2, 3, 5, 10 years or longer….then you paid less interest than someone in a Fixed rate product.   You probably saved $$thousands each and every year.    Variable rate has been lower than the 5 year fixed rate in over 88% of the time.

But how about today….?  Well, the Banks have changed the mortgage landscape.   They have decided there isn’t enough profit in Variable rate mortgages.    Up until 6 months ago, anyone needing a new mortgage could get a Variable rate at Bank Prime (3.00%) less 0.75% and maybe even a little better..!    If you took a Variable rate 4 years ago, you might still be enjoying Prime less 0.90%!!   Today, a quick search on the net for Variable rate pricing and you’ll find Bank Prime less 0%…. some are actually charging Bank Prime + 0.15%.

But it’s not all bad news.   With the bond market hitting all time lows, we are also experiencing historical low 5 year fixed rates.   Today, the best 5 year fixed rate seems to be 3.39%  (WORD OF WARNING… there are some NO FRILLS rates of 3.19% or lower being advertised out there… these NO FRILLS products carry limited or no prepayment privileges and you cannot exit these product without selling your home.   We are not quoting those rates).

Any upward movement in the Bank Prime rate and you could actually be paying more for that Variable rate vs today’s 5 year Fixed rate.   Yes, today we must consider Fixed rate as a good option…. Just make sure you are choosing the appropriate term.   Anything shorter than 3 years does not seem to give enough of a rate guarantee for most of us.  Anything longer than 5 years is too costly.   5 years seems to be a good option in most cases.  But not for all… we are all different and have different needs… speak to a Mortgage Broker to review all available products and decide which one fits you best.

My guess is that Variable rate pricing will continue to be priced at Bank Prime for the next 6 months to 12 months or at least until Bank Prime moves up or until one of the Banks is losing too much market share and wants to attract more business.

We will be watching and reporting.

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BMO Economist forecast no rate hikes til 2013

More good news…. interest rates are not expected to increase til 2013, according to Bank of Montreal.

Really no surprise here.  The global economy is not doing well.  But here in Canada, the economy is performing relatively well.   The only reason our stock market and Canadian $ are down is because of the uncertainty of the European debt crisis.

5 year fixed rates are hovering at 3.39%… and they are even lower for qualified borrowers…. Variable rates are at around 2.60%…  We are in record low territory.

Did you know a $300,000 mortgage will carry for as little as $1199/month?   Hey, if you’re paying $1400/mth for rent, then why not consider buying place of your own…  And for those that want off the stock market roller coaster, a rental property may just be what you need…  Best thing is to talk to a Mortgage Broker, crunch the numbers and see how it looks.   It’s probably easier than you think.

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Setting us up for fewer rate drops and higher bank profit margins..

It’s becoming clear that the Banks and govt want us to boost Bank profit margins…. Yes, it’s true!   They want you and I to pay a higher interest rate so that the Banks can earn a higher profit…

Let’s look at some facts…

-The Banks recently got together and increased their Variable rate pricing from Prime less 0.75% to Prime less 0% (the Bank websites are showing their variable rates at Prime less 0% but there are still places you can get Prime less 0.40%).   So why is that?  They tell us ‘profitability concerns’ is the reason…

-The best 5 year fixed rate on the web from any of the Big Six Banks is 3.99%… Yet, the 5 year govt of Canada bond yields are at 1.43% today…that’s a spread of 2.56%... historically, that spread is between 1.10% to 1.50%… (by the way, you can still get a 5 year fixed rate at 3.39% from reputable lending institutions).   The Banks are making a fortune these days on Fixed Rate mortgages.

– OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions) has now come out and said that they are concerned consumers will borrower more than they should because interest rates are so low… and because of this, they are urging Banks not to loosen their lending criteria, especially on Home Equity Lines of Credit…

Read the warning signs

If you read between the lines, we are being warned that tighter lending rules could be just around the corner for Secured lines of credit… I don’t think the govt needs to make any further changes to mortgage lending…both secured lines of credit and mortgages…  We have seen several rules changes over the past few years….  But  the message we are being fed is that Banks need to charge a higher rate of interest because consumers cannot be trusted to borrow wisely…

The reality is that interest rates should actually be lower than where they are today.   Cost of funds are down… so why can’t we just let consumers pay fair market interest rates?  It’s one thing to be told that interest rates are going up because of market conditions and cost of funds… but when I start hearing that Bank Profit concerns and consumer spending habits are issues, then I have to start questioning the motives.   This just sounds like another excuse to raise rates and charge the average consumer more…..Consumers beware…!

Some good news

There was some good news… and that is that US interest rates are forecast to remain low into 2013…. Canada usually follow the US very closely….Hey, let’s enjoy the low interest rates…. a $300,000 mortgage will carry from between $1200/mth and $1325/mth…what’s wrong with that?  Enjoy Canada… Enjoy.