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Posted Mortgage News

Bond yields fall after Middle East turmoil

Earlier this month, we saw Fixed mortgage rates go up and the forecasts were calling for rates to continue to go up over the next 2 years.   It’s important to remember that all forecasts make certain assumptions and don’t allow for the unexpected… These forecasts may still be accurate but of course, no one was expecting the uprising in Egypt, now Libya and possibly other Middle East countries…

The Canada Bond yield has dropped around 22bps to 2.58% from a 10 month high of 2.80%.    This takes some of the pressure off to raise fixed rates… and we might even start to see some Fixed rate decreases if the Bond yields fall further…(or course, the Banks are famous for raising rates immediately but lowering them slowly and this was even identified by the most recent Bank of Canada quarterly review)

I can’t help but to reflect on Professor Moshe Milevsky’s article from a few weeks about how to deal with rising interest rates…. In this article he cautioned us about overreacting to warnings of huge rate hikes or calls to lock in your mortgage…    Wow, the timing of his article couldn’t be more perfect.   I recommend you take a moment and read what the Professor has to say.

Posted Mortgage News

TD and RBC CEO’s income $11million each for 2010…

Are the BIG SIX Bank CEO’s that good?

It’s that time of the year again… when Bank CEO salaries have to be reported… TD’s CEO Ed Clark earned $11.3million on profits of $4.6billion in 2010, RBC’s CEO Gord Nixon pocketed $11million. Congratulations….!   Staggering numbers considering that we are just coming out of (hopefully) the worst recession ever… click here for more on Bank salaries.

So what’s the problem?

There has been so much publicity about how strong our Canadian Banking system has been through this recession…. And yes, it’s true.. we have held it together very well.  But was it that our Bankers were that smart or just that far behind the times??

It has been said that Canada is always 5 years behind the U.S. Ever heard that saying?  Well, it’s true for many things, including Banking and Financial Services…   In 2006, we saw the introduction of 30, 35 and then 40 year amortization mortgages. We also saw $0 money down mortgages….. Interest only mortgages!! 107% loan to value financing!!!

These products were beginning to gain some popularity in Canada.. but then in October 2008, the U.S. mortgage crisis hit… and all the new products were pulled from the shelf.   Imagine if these products were introduced to Canada 5 years earlier…. Imagine how many of us would have been affected….  Don’t be fooled into believing that it was our Banking system that saved us…

Look, the plain truth is that we got lucky… we were a bit slow to embrace these products… and that’s really our infamous Canadian conservatism coming out… It’s got nothing to do with our Bankers being that much smarter… It’s got everything to do with you, the general public, the average Canadian, not taking to change quickly…. This is the real reason we didn’t suffer a worse fate.

How much did mortgage penalties contribute to Bank Profits?

Here’s a bit of math to play with…. Statistics tell us that on average, Canadians move or refinance their mortgage every three years…. The stats also tell us that approximately 75% of all mortgages are in a fixed rate term… I would venture to guess that probably 95% of those are in a 5 year fixed rate….  Okay, so now let’s look what the average penalty would cost you to break your mortgage…

And today, I have another example that I will share with you… it’s about a young couple that needed some help….  (I get these almost daily, by the way)….

A $250k mortgage with a 5.15% rate with 28 months til maturity…  The penalty quote to break the mortgage was $11k... I gave some advice and helped to get it down to $8k...    That penalty still works out to over 7 months interest. Can you say ka-ching!!   The Banks have made an absolute fortune on the backs of unsuspecting Canadians….

The Govt and the Banks should tighten credit card rules

Last November, the Banks pressured the Federal Govt to tighten mortgage lending, to make it harder to take a Variable Rate Mortgage… to make it harder to refinance your debts into a mortgage….  The results are bad for Canadians.. we now have to take a 5 year fixed rate mortgage in many cases… we now have to keep our higher interest credit card debt, loans, and other debt….  Canadians are being forced to keep these higher interest debts while Banks increase their profit margins…  Here’s a great article about Household Debt..

By the way, there are no rules for giving out a credit card…

Posted Case study

Report shows Canadian borrowers are too complacent…don’t drink the koolaid.

That’s what a report in the latest Bank of Canada Review had to say…    This article in the National Post sums it up well…  “Simply put, borrowers are often complacent and end up paying more than they should.”

This is exactly the reason I started this site…..To make you an informed borrower. Like the review said,  “consumers have different preferences and skills when shopping and bargaining for a mortgage and where lenders maximize profits based on observing these preferences and skills.”

So, how does the average Canadian borrower know if they are getting the absolute best rate or the right mortgage product?  Is there a better product with a different Bank, Financial institutions or other Lender?  How do you know if you aren’t speaking with an unbiased professional that doesn’t work for any one bank?  For me, there is only one sure way to know you are getting a highly competitive mortgage product…..You must deal with a Mortgage Broker.

Here’s another quote from the Bank of Canada Review…  “Canadian lenders appear to be extremely slow to pass on changes in the Bank Rate to their customers.”  I’m sure this comes as no surprise to most of us.

Never forget that the Banks are a business… and they are here to make a profit… It’s imperative to seek unbiased, market neutral advice…..  A Bank Mortgage Specialist just can’t be neutral or unbiased….They can only offer one set of products…  I save the best for last….

A Mortgage Broker helps to ‘creates competition’ as the report said.

Hopefully, this site will keep you informed and awake…Don’t settle for the status quo….

Posted Interest rates

Bank of Canada action not always prudent or correct…

Have to share this article giving us some history on the accuracy of the Bank of Canada (BOC)  interest rate forecasts…   This should get you thinking a little the next time you hear the  BOC forecasts…. Take a look at this Historical Rates chart.. look at the Bank Prime section…   You will notice some trends of rates hikes followed by rate drops…

We aren’t saying BOC rates will fall anytime soon… it’s clear the rate will go up…. but there is no straight line increase if you look back in history… Increases are followed by decreases…

-1992.. the BOC erred and raised rates thinking the economy was strong but they quickly retreated and reversed those increases after realizing it was too much, too soon.

-1995…the Quebec referendum year… remember that?  I do.. I bought a house that year… and interest rates went up 1.00% overnight after fears of a Quebec ‘YES’ vote was more than possible… but then rates dropped like a rock and remained low for several years…

-2000….another recession… the dot.com, dot.bomb error of hi-tech stock greed…  rates had climbed in 1998 and 1999 but dropped in 2001 and remained low once again…

-2008…the U.S. mortgage crisis… the worst Global recession since the Great Depression of the ’30s…. we saw BOC drop the rate to a modern-day record low…Bank Prime was 2.25%…

-2010…the BOC kept it’s promise to raise rates and increased the rate by 0.75% over a 3 month span to 3.00%….

-2011…. ?????  the BOC is expected to raise rates by as much as 1.00% this year, and another 1.50% next year, according to the RBC Economist…. Did the BOC raise rates too quickly?  Can our economy absorb these increases?   Questions that won’t be answered for a while…

It doesn’t mean you have to sit and do nothing

But this doesn’t mean you have to stand by and be a spectator.   By keeping informed with historical trends and understanding your own personal situation, you can be in control…. Understand where you fit in… Is Fixed rate better for you now?  Does Variable Rate still make sense for you?   Can you handle the potential increases that are coming?    A good Mortgage Broker can help guide you to the right answer… Remember, it’s your mortgage, your payment…your decision.

Posted 2 Comments on Personal debt level up…uhh, wait.. maybe we made a mistake?! Consumer Debt

Personal debt level up…uhh, wait.. maybe we made a mistake?!

As you know, I have been very critical about the data that was being put out over the past few months regarding Canada’s personal debt levels.. We were being bombarded with reports and comments about our spending habits… I found it hard to believe that we could go from conservative nation to a casino nation in just a few years…

Sure, there is more debt…. Outstanding mortgage balances topped $1trillion for the first time… but we seemed to be growing at a moderate pace, year over year.. We didn’t have the 20% to 30% increases in real estate prices that we saw in 1987-89, or like our neighbors in the U.S. over the past decade.  Meaning there was less chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And what about our assets….?  It was hard to find any report about our net worth or assets…  There was one report from Ben Tal, Senior Economist CIBC, that didn’t get much notice but we reported it here on December 3rd…  here are some of those stats…

-there are 12.5million households in Canada…31% rent, 69% own..

-of the 69% that own, 39.9% have a mortgage and 28.9% have no mortgage.

-69% of homeowners with a mortgage have more than 20% equity in their homes… only 30% have less than 20% equity in their homes.

click here for the full story..

And now for the real stats

Personal debt to disposable income ratio has been reported at 148%… This figure has been recycled more than that gift bag from the wine store you received at Christmas…. and just like that gift bag that gets passed around from friend to friend, it comes with a different bottle… or in this case, different figures and opinions.

Let see how you like this vintage….   Some new reports just came out that should ease our concern about our personal debt levels and average net worth.  “Average household net worth has risen to an impressive six times the size of disposable income, up from an average of five times in the 1990s.”  That’s a quote from BMO’s Senior Economist, Sal Guatieri…  read more here.

What’s this?  You mean Canadians are actually investing their money and not spending it frivolously like the Federal Govt has been telling us for the past several months?

It gets better…

Here’s a little more info from CIBC Bank..   Those figures had to do with the personal tax refunds we were getting last year because of the stimulus packages…. “Household debt in the third quarter grew at the slowest pace in nine years, while in the last month for which there is data — October 2010 — it was the softest in 15 years.” read more here.

That’s right, WE ARE SPENDING LESS AND OUR ASSETS ARE GROWING FASTER THAN IN THE 1990’s. … But how can this be?  The Federal Govt has been telling us that our personal debt levels are at dangerous levels…  and they had to change mortgage rules to slow our spending habits….. Any of this make sense to you?

Here’s an article from Ellen Roseman from The Star that says Canada’s Stock Market has outperformed the U.S. markets for the past 7 years… and we are poised to outperform them for the next 10 years….

Feel good about yourself Canada….. Keep investing… keep borrowing and spending wisely….