CategoryMortgage Trends

Posted September 5, 2012 Interest rates

Bank of Cda doesn’t change rate…U.S. Fed not to raise rates until 2015?

Bank of Canada announced they were keeping the Target Rate unchanged today, during their 6th of 8 regularly scheduled meetings for 2012. (This is not a recording..Lol!)

A more interesting topic is the U.S. Fed. There was an article last week that caught my eye. The article quotes the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president as saying he doesn’t believe the U.S. Fed will raise rates until 2015. And even if you don’t agree with that forecast, we must acknowledge that US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has stated he doesn’t forecast any increases until 2014.

Why is this important for Canadians to follow? They say when the U.S sneezes, Canada catches a cold. There’s a lot of truth to that statement. The U.S. is our biggest trading partner. History tells us we follow U.S. economic policies and trends.

CANADA MAKES IT’S OWN PATH

But something changed in 2008. The U.S. had a financial meltdown. The entire world was impacted and pushed into a global recession. Somehow, Canada came out of this with minimal damage. No housing crash. No Bank failures. No meltdown. In fact, many sectors our industry have flourished including our housing industry. We don’t have any mortgage default problem. Our unemployment rate is 7.3% compared with the 30 yr average of 8.4%. And our Banks are reporting $billion quarterly profits. We are the envy of the world….financially speaking.

CDA GOVT CONTINUES TO FOLLOW US GOVT

Still, the Cda govt continues to follow the U.S. Fed with regards to any rate increases or decreases. After all, we are still a very small economy compared with the U.S. and the rest of the world. The Bank of Canada has not increased the Target Rate for 24 months. Bank Prime currently sits at 3.00%. And many economists believe we won’t see any increase until late 2013 or even 2014. This leads me to believe mortgage rates will remain low for some time to come.

BUT WHICH MORTGAGE TERM SHOULD YOU CHOOSE?

The big question is which mortgage term to choose today… short or long? fixed or variable? The answer depends on you…. your goals, plans, financial strategy, risk tolerance, etc. Each of us has different needs… Product selection is very different today. There is an interested Variable rate product at Prime less 0.35% that has my attention. 5 yr fixed at 3.19% and 3.09% are still available… not a bad option for most of us…. My best advice is to get some advice. Speak with a qualified, unbiased professional. Speak with a Mortgage Broker. A Mortgage Broker doesn’t work for any one Bank.. they can offer a wide variety of products from a large number of Lenders….

As always, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me.

Steve Garganis

steve@mortgagenow.ca

416 224 0114

Posted August 9, 20121 Comment Interest rates

Bond rates up 0.30%…and 5 yr mortgages at 2.99% disappear.. for now.

Last week we saw 5 yr fixed mortgage rates hit 2.99% for the first time ever (these are full featured mortgages, not No Frills products). But these rates didn’t last long… just 3 days later, bond yields spiked up and mortgage rates followed… 5 yr fixed rates now sit at 3.09%.

The 5 year Govt of Canada bond yields are up 0.30% since July 24th, and are currently sitting at 1.42%. That’s a 26% increase in 2 weeks. These bond yields have a direct effect on 5 yr fixed mortgage rates. If bond yields continue to go up, we could see mortgage rates go up further. Looking further ahead, the 2yr Govt of Canada bond yields provide us with a 6 month outlook… they have also gone up from 0.93% to 1.16%, a 20% increase… if the yields stay at this level, we should look for rates to go up slightly…

Still, these are historical low rates… anything under 4.00% is ridiculously low… We haven’t seen 5 yr fixed rates under 4.00% for over 40 yrs.. This isn’t time to panic…it’s still a great time to borrow money…

This seems to be an ongoing pattern. Rates go up temporarily, then they drop… they go up, then they drop… We’ve been stuck in this cycle for over 2 years. But hey, who’s complaining? Not anyone with a mortgage….not any real estate investors… this means money is cheap….. and it makes investing in real estate a very attractive option.

For those of us with a pension or if you are heavily invested in stocks, bonds or mutual funds, then you won’t like these low rates as they are keeping your Return On Investment very low…… Personally, I have some money in mutual funds and some stocks…..I started with my RRSP in 1990…. they were supposed to be a safe, long-term investments…. The only problem is, I’ve never made any positive return… Sound familiar? The only ones making money are the Fund Managers (with their 2% Management fees) and Investment Advisors (with their 5% or 6% Deferred Sales Charges).

I lost my appetite for stocks and mutual funds, in 2000… the year of the dot com, dot bomb, internet stock market crash… the markets have been a roller coaster ride ever since… I got off that ride in 2004 and have never looked back.

If you’re looking for investment strategies in mortgages and real estate, drop me a line or give me a call… I’d be happy to share some of my knowledge and experiences of others that are enjoying positive returns elsewhere.

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

Posted July 31, 2012 Interest rates

Lenders chop rates again… 2.99%… and Variable rates at Prime less 0.35%!

Today we saw 2 announcements…. For the first time ever, we saw a 5 yr fixed rate being offered for 2.99%. This is not a No Frills mortgage… so you don’t have to worry about minimal prepayment privileges, or restricted payout options, and no monkey business when it comes to penalty calculation…. You probably won’t see a lot of publicity about this because of the mainstream media was quick to promote the BMO NO FRILLS mortgage as the first 5 yr fixed mortgage under 3.00%….earlier this year. But I can tell you, it’s a significant milestone.

And we also saw the introduction of the lowest Variable rate mortgage in almost a year… Prime less 0.35%, or 2.65%. This isn’t one of those NO FRILLS Variable rate mortgages that is full of restrictions… you have all the regular options including being able to lock into the BEST discounted fixed rate at any time.

These 2 offers are very special… They don’t come with hidden clauses or back door penalties, or exit fees. These products are legit!

The driver behind the pricing is competition, the increased spread in profit margins and a slowing housing market.. The thirst to grow a business and keep the business on the books is going to see a lot of competition…. and the winners are us… the borrowers…

If you want more info on these rates or other mortgage related issues, call me anytime.

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114

Posted July 23, 2012 Interest rates

Wanna know where rates are going? Look at 2 yr bond yields.

Probably the most popular question asked is, “where are rates heading?” Or “when will they go up?” Let’s face it, if you have a mortgage or are invested in real estate, then you better know the answer or understand what affects rates. After all, interest rates can make or break a housing market.

We decided to take a few minutes to explain how you can follow the indicators that affect interest rate movement…. We won’t make you a Financial Expert, but you will gain a better understanding of what affects rate movements…

My first suggestion is to stop paying so much attention to the news or TV… (apologies to my media friends)… but the wild headlines are there to grab your attention… it’s not that difficult to understand…

Last week, the Bank of Canada met for the 5th time in 2012. There are 8 scheduled meetings each year… (and by the way, this helps to keep rate movement and monetary policy more predictable…. the more predictable a Govt is, the more stable it’s economy is.) The Key Rate is set during these meetings… this rate directly affects Variable rate mortgages…. No surprise, the Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney, kept the rate unchanged.

That means Bank Prime is still 3.00%. And with more negative economic news from Greece, Spain, other parts of Europe, the U.S, and now Canada, it’s safe to say rates should remain flat for some time……(remember, bad economic news usually means rates will drop or stay low).

So the Bank of Canada’s Key Rate (also known as Target Rate or Overnight rate) directly affects Variable rate mortgages… but indirectly, they also affect Fixed Rates. A better short term indicator to watch is the 5 yr Govt of Cda bond yield. We watch this to see where fixed rates are headed in the short term… say, over the next few days or or few weeks. A good long term indicator for Fixed rates is the 2 yr Gov of Cda bond yields. Financial Experts pay very close attention to this index if they want to know where rates are going in 6 months or longer. And at present, the 2 yr yields are very low…..

Bottom line, rates should remain low for some time… Not so hard to follow, right?

And not to confuse you, but historically, Fixed rates usually go up ahead of Variable rates…. so we need to watch Bond yields together, with the Bank of Canada’s Key Rate to gauge where rates are going…

Hope this helps… and as always, feel free to call or email me…

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114

steve@mortgagenow.ca

Posted July 9, 20122 Comments Mortgage News

New Mortgage rules start today… but BMO study says Canadians pay their mortgages in 15 yrs!

The govt’s new mortgage rules go into effect today… well, actually, most Lenders put them into effect a week ago to ensure they had enough time to process applications already in the pipeline.

The new rules are supposed to help us pay our mortgage off faster, make it tougher to borrow money and slow the housing market which in turn will save us from a housing bubble. And this is also supposed to help lower our personal debt levels. It all sounds great, but the govt has not provided us with any real data to suggest that we need saving from ourselves.

In fact, a new BMO study shows that Canadians are paying off their mortgages in 15 years or less. Does that sound like a bunch of irresponsible borrowers? And there is a lot more data out there that shows over 20% of us are making lump sum payments… and even more are accelerating their payment schedules by increasing their minimum mortgage payments..

If the govt did make a mistake and used a sledgehammer to kill a fly, then let’s hope they will act just as quickly to adjust the rules if their policies were too strong… Let’s hope they will put some sort of review procedure in place to measure the impact of these changes….We already have some pretty tough standards when it comes to borrowing for a house…. maybe we should bring in some rules for Credit Cards or personal loans… seems like anyone with a pulse can get one of these….