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CategoryMortgage Trends

Mortgage Rate Forecast in Canada

Here’s a recent article forecasting low rates that appeared in The Globe and Mail. The article points to Scotiabank’s Economist as saying “the economy has lost considerable momentum.”

Scotiabank is also forecasting  the Bank of Canada to keep the Target Rate or the Overnight Rate flat until the 3rd quarter of 2011.   This means the Variable rate should remain a good option with rates between 2.25% to 2.30%.

Current Bond yields are at 1.94% as of today…. this means the fixed rate spread is 1.65%.. this is above the normal 1.25% to 1.40%…

Fixed rates are priced closely to the Bond market but indirectly by the Bank of Canada’s actions… we are seeing 5 year fixed rates (the benchmark for fixed rates) hovering at 3.59% to 3.69%… and they could still go lower…

Enjoy the low rates… borrow wisely!

Introducing the new TD mortgage…hand-cuffs included

The rumors are true…TD Canada Trust will begin registering all mortgages as collateral charges after October 18.    (No official release from TD yet but a source inside TD has confirmed this to us).

What does this mean for the consumer?  Well, there is some good but mainly it’s bad..

  • a collateral mortgage is normally registered for floating or revolving debt such as a secured line of credit.  It allows for the balance to float up or down.
  • TD will register a collateral charge for 125% of the loan amount… this will allow the client to come back at a later date and apply to increase their mortgage if needed….
  • in theory, it sounds great…no legal fees required in the future if you need to refinance… and easy approval…

BUT HOLD ON…

  • a COLLATERAL MORTGAGE is NOT really portable…meaning you cannot transfer to another institution…that’s because no other Bank or Lender is accepting collateral mortgages for transfer… including TD…you will lose some leverage to negotiate the rate when your mortgage matures…
  • and if you wanted to increase your mortgage in the future, you would need to reapply for approval…let’s suppose you don’t qualify in the future..not because your situation changed but because the Bank’s lending policy changes…this happens regularly….you would now have to seek out an entirely  new 1st mortgage as no other lender would register a 2nd mortgage in behind a collateral first mortgage (at least none that I am aware of)…  that could mean penalties, definitely legal fees and other costs….
  • It’s obvious that a big reason TD would be doing this is to improve mortgage retention.. this makes it less appealing to leave TD because of the costs….
  • BOTTOM LINE…this type of mortgage limits your options..it doesn’t expand them.. you MAY save on legal fees..but that’s not a big enough reason to go with this product..

My advise to anyone looking at a TD mortgage is to be careful…make sure you understand all the terms, conditions, the differences and the limitations…you be the judge… is this a good thing for the client or is it a good thing for the Bank??  Will other Banks follow?  Some might say this is like putting handcuffs on the client… I tend to agree…

Govt pondering tightening mortgage rules further?

The Federal Minister of Finance, Jim Flaherty, made some comments about possible mortgage tightening policies…. see both Winnipeg Free Press, Reuters, and the Financiap Post.  The govt is concerned about a possible ‘overheating’ of the housing market.

The honorable Minister just needs to wait for September’s figures to put that concern to rest.   The numbers aren’t out yet, but early indications show that the housing market has definitely slowed down.  Prices are flat and in some cases, have decreased.

Further tightening of Canada’s mortgage policies are not necessary in my opinion… but this does bring up an interesting situation for anyone that is refinancing their mortgage or looking to buy a house…

My advice…get your mortgage preapproved immediately….no need to chance any possible rule change….

More speculation that interest rates will remain low

We’re starting to see more evidence that the recovery is not going as well as the Bank of Canada first thought.   Inflation has dipped slightly, even with the HST.

CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, says we are beyond the ‘Great Depression of 2008-09 but we are in the ‘Great Disappointment’ of  a sub-par recovery.   He’s forecasting for interest rates to remain flat until the spring of next year, followed by only gradual increases thereafter.

Great news for anyone that has a mortgage…

Is this a good time to buy a Rental property?

Owning a rental property can be a great way to build your net worth and also enhance your income.   In recent years, house values increased to a point where it was next to impossible to find a property that had a positive cashflow.

The biggest cost in owing a rental property is the mortgage.    And we are seeing historical low interest rates …. under 4.00% for a 5 year fixed and variable rates of under 3.00%….

Does the math work for you? Let’s take a look at a mortgage I arranged for someone who bought a townhouse for $320,000. Here’s what the math looked like:

  • We arranged a 1st mortgage for $256,000.
  • negotiated a 5 year fixed rate of 3.89% amortized over 35 years.
  • Monthly payment is $1127.
  • property taxes are $240/mth.
  • tenant pays $1500/mth rent plus utilities.
  • end result is a $133/mth positive cashflow.

This was a good situation.. not all rentals will produce a positive cashflow but they don’t always have to.  There are usually some tax advantages to owing a rental property that is producing a slight loss..

Here are my tips when buying a rental property:

  • you should plan on holding for at least 7 years… most economic cycles will have run their course in that time and property appreciation is more likely…any initial costs incurred when the property was purchased are easier to absorb over that time.
  • speak with your accountant and mortgage broker about obtaining the best financing…it usually makes sense to buy with as little down as possible, finance as much as possible and minimize or eliminate any profits to reduce income tax exposure….again, speak with your accountant.
  • maximize the amortization your rental property so  you can minimize the amount you pay towards the principal portion of the  mortgage… again, this requires thorough of your personal situation but generally speaking, most borrowers carry other personal debt that should be paid off before the rental property mortgage.
  • pay off all other personal debt first….. good debt is tax-deductible debt like a rental property mortgage….bad debt is non tax-deductible debt like credit cards, personal loans, mortgage on your principal residence.
  • I love variable rate mortgages, but when it comes to rental properties, you need to consider a fixed rate… it’s important to know what your costs are when buying a rental property… many lenders don’t even offer a variable rate mortgage on rental properties which will limit your choice of lenders.

Qualifying for a mortgage on a rental property has changed significantly in recent years.

The biggest changes started immediately after the U.S. mortgage crisis in October 2008.  Lenders all but stopped financing them.  Earlier this year, the Federal government stepped in and changed CMHC’s rental policies for those with less than 20% down.   I would say it’s almost impossible to qualify for a 1st mortgage greater than 80% on a rental property with ‘AAA’ rates.

And for those with 20% down or greater (a conventional mortgage), it was still difficult to qualify.  Most lenders changed their polices here as well.   Some Lenders wanted as much as 35% down or had debt servicing ratios that were not reasonable or practical.

The good news.… Lenders are interested in rental properties again.. not like pre-Oct. 2008 days, but we are seeing more reasonable qualifying.   These record low rates make rental properties very appealing...