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CategoryRate forecast

Inflation rises to highest level in 2 years…but don’t panic

Latest figures show inflation jumped 2.4% in October according to Statistics Canada… compared with 1.9% in September.    The Bank of Canada aims for an inflation rate of between 1% and 3%.    Anything over 2% can trigger the Bank of Canada to take action… Usually, a hike in the Bank of Canada Rate, which affects Variable Rate Mortgages..

However, it’s no reason to panic.  A one month inflation spike probably isn’t enough for the Bank of Canada (BOC) to take drastic action.  It’s probably gonna take consecutive months of higher inflation or other events before the BOC raise rates again.  Most experts believe the Bank of Canada will not make any changes til next year.

Throw in some Global issues like Ireland’s’ debt and the Korean conflict heating up and you get uncertainty… Uncertainty means rates should stay low for some time…

How will the high $Canadian dollar affect mortgage rates?

The Canadian dollar is just about at par with the U.S. dollar…  The BMO Economist sums it up well when he says “Generally speaking, from a stronger currency, consumers win and producers lose.”  As quoted in the Vancouver Sun.

And a high Canadian dollar means the Bank of Canada is less likely to increase the Target Rate which affects Variable Rates…  Any move by the Bank of Canada upwards will only drive the Canadian dollar higher…
A high Canadian dollar hurts our exports as they become more expensive for other countries to buy…  and we will probably see more cross border shopping as our strong $CAD will have more buying power…
Bottom line is that Variable Rates appear to be safe for now… enjoy the low rates…

 

Bank of Canada takes a pause with rate hikes

Bank of Canada governor, Mark Carney, held the Target Rate steady today…as expected…  Concerns about the U.S. economic recovery stalling, the Global economy and our own domestic economy were mentioned in the Press Release.

In the press release, the Bank said inflation was not a concern as it is under the 2% target.  Take all this data and it spells UNCERTAINTY.

What’s also interesting is that the Bank has adjusted it’s forecast for growth downward for the next 2 years…Great news for those in a Variable rate… Variable rates are hovering around 2.30% these days.

This makes the Variable Rate product that much more attractive…even with 5 year fixed rates in the 3.59% range.

Experts believe the rate will remain steady throughout next Spring and possibly into Fall depending on inflation and Global and domestic economic data….

Click here for the Press Release.

Sounds like a broken record…5 yr Bond rates remain low as do mortgage rates..

We’ve reached the middle of summer and there is very little to report… hey, that’s a good thing.. remember, boring is good when it comes to mortgage rates..

Remember those Experts that called for people to lock into a long-term fixed rate at or around 4.00% last year?.. Variable rates have been under 2.00% for over a year and recently went above 2.00%….   I do understand why some would call for us to lock in….but I’m glad I wasn’t one of them…

Look at today’s 5 year bond rate and it’s 2.29%… WOW!   That’s unbelievably low… the 5 year fixed rate is priced from the Bond market and normally, we will see a spread of 1.20% to 1.40% above that… so really, we should be seeing fixed rates as low at 3.50% but the Banks are taking advantage of the spreads and maximizing their profits…..

Let’s not be in too much of a hurry to improve bank profits….

Watch for possible increases in fixed and variable rates later this year.. but remember, we’re still near record low rates.. they will go up, but slowly… no need to panic… yes, this is boring news.. but boring is good…

Interest rate hike coming… no need to panic…

We’ve seen a lot of media coverage about the interest rate hikes coming this summer.. yes, it’s true… The Bank of Canada will raise their overnight rate very soon.. By how much? Maybe 0.75% by the end of the year.. or maybe 1.00% like this these Economists are forecasting as reported in the Globe and Mail.

Think about it.. if you arranged your variable rate mortgage before Oct 2008, then you have been enjoying interest rates below 2.00%… WOW!…I mean come on, are you kidding me?  What’s wrong with that…?

So let’s assume rates go up by 1.00% or even 2.00% like some think it will over the next few years… that would still mean your mortgage is below 4.00%…. And the record low for a 5 year fixed mortgage rate is just below 4.00%…

That’s right… even if rates increase by 2.00%, you would still be in historical low rates when compared to a 5 yr fixed rate…..So why is this so bad or going to be such shocker??

And by the way, competition and improved investor confidence is bringing variable rate mortgage pricing closer to normal levels…..the good old days…!

To qualify for a variable rate mortgage you had to qualify at the 3 year fixed rate…posted rate for most lenders…

I hope you are seeing a pattern here…. the New Mortgage Rules coming into effect April 19 will mean you must qualify at the Chartered Bank 5 yr POSTED rate….Banks would love for all their clients to take a 5 yr fixed rate as these are the most profitable product for them…(would you rather pay 1.85% or 3.79%??)

Don’t be in too much of a hurry to get yourself into a higher rate…a fixed rate… you are only buying insurance… and very costly at that…..

For some of us, a fixed rate is worth the peace of mind and is important for us to know what our budget is … Discuss with a mortgage broker…. get the facts…

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