A month ago, I said Fixed mortgage rates probably hit the bottom. A week later, fixed mortgage rates started to go up… around 0.20% over the past 3 weeks. Variable rate mortgage pricing has gone from Prime less 0.65% to Prime less Prime less 0.40%.
Now, here’s the thing…. I don’t think rates will skyrocket over the next 6 or 12 months, like the pessimists would have you believe. I think mortgage rates hit the bottom….BUT, they probably won’t go up very quickly.
In fact, the forecast now is for the Bank of Canada rate to stay the same until 2017. This is just another example of how the world has become a smaller place. If someone sneezes in Germany, we catch a cold. With most of the global economies just getting by, there isn’t much reason for mortgage rates to go crazy. They should remain low.
The key driver for rates going up recently is nothing more than profit taking. Banks have had a great year… In case you didn’t know. That’s right.. we seem to forget that 2015 was one of the best years on record for real estate and mortgage volume… and house prices have never been higher. Funny how that seems to get lost in the media reports.
Look for Variable rate pricing to fall in the new year… Fixed rates could also come down slightly, but don’t count on them hitting the record lows that we saw this summer. Hey, that’s not to say rates are bad. We are still well under 3.00%. These are ridiculously low mortgage rates. Enjoy them while you can.
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History tells us that mortgage rates usually drop leading up to an election. And 2015 has followed that trend. It started in January of this year, when the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor, Stephen Poloz, shocked Economists with his surprise 0.25% Bank Rate cut.
(CanadaMortgageNews.ca readers will remember, not all were shocked, as I had predicted a rate drop just days earlier).
Then in July, the BOC Govr did it again.. this time, it wasn’t as much a shock. The Bank Prime was cut by another 0.25% after months of negative Economist data showed the Canadian economy was slowing. Continue reading “Rates usually drop leading up to a Federal election!”
Fixed mortgage rates are tied closely to the Govt of Cda bond yields. And bond yields are up… Since mid April, the 5 yr Gov of Cda bond yield has gone from 0.75% to 1.07%. That’s a 0.32% jump. Normally, we would see fixed mortgage rates go up.
So far, no increase. But that’s probably more to do with a competitive Spring housing market. This is when most house sales and mortgage transactions take place. The Banks need to maintain certain market share levels in order to keep shareholders happy. They are willing to sacrifice a little profit margin (and I do mean little… they seem to make up for this with higher service fees as was recently reported, but let’s not get into that now…).
If the bond yields continue to increase, we will see fixed mortgage rates rise. That’s an automatic. The real question is how long will the bond yields continue their climb? It will be interesting to watch the next few months. We can expect to see some rate increases as the Spring market ends and Banks look to increase their profit…. A pattern that repeats itself year after year.. but here’s what you can do to protect yourself… Continue reading “Bond Yields are up… will Fixed Mortgage rates follow?”
Fixed mortgage rates are tied into Govt of Cda bond yields. As the yields go done, so does the fixed mortgage rates.. well, usually.. more on that later..These bond yields have hit all-time lows in the past week… Yesterday, they were as low as 0.55%... To put that into perspective, the 5 yr bond yield is lower than the Bank or Canada overnight rate, which now stands at 0.75%. Another historical event. That almost never happens.
Check out these 2 historical charts to compare the Bank of Canada rate from 1935 to Dec 2014 and 5 year Govt of Cda bond yield from 1980 to Dec 2014….
If you’re wondering what this means for you, a Canadian consumer, it means mortgage rates should go even lower. Institutional investors are pricing in a further Bank of Canada rate cut at their next schedule meeting on March 4th, 2015. Continue reading “Record low Bond yields means even lower fixed mortgage rates”
Yesterday’s rate cut announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC) governor, Stephen Poloz, caught all Economists by surprise. The BOC cut their overnight rate by 0.25%. Historically, and traditionally, this meant that the Bank Prime rate would follow. Bank Prime rate is 3.00% and we expect it to fall to 2.75%.
But HOLD ON!…Today, it’s the BOC governor, Poloz, that will be surprised as TD Bank says they WON’T be cutting their Bank Prime rate! The BOC cut the rate to help stimulate the economy. Businesses borrow commercial funds priced against Bank Prime… and consumers borrow lines of credit and Variable rate mortgages against Bank Prime. Continue reading “TD green or TD GREED?!. as they refuse to lower the Prime rate!!”