Skip to content

TagBond yields

Posted Interest rates

5 yr Bond yields up significantly.. expect fixed rates to go up..!

big news 5 yr Govt of Canada bond yields are up over 30bps in May.   We should expect fixed mortgage rates to increase if they hold at this level.  If you are thinking of buying, refinancing or if your mortgage is coming up for renewal, I suggest you contact your mortgage broker and get some rates held.  This could be the beginning of the long-awaited mortgage rate hikes.

There is another chart you should look at if you want to see where Fixed mortgage rates are headed over the next 6 months.   The 2 year Govt of Canada bond yields are a good 6 month indicator of where rates are going…. and this chart shows the 2 year bond yields jumped over 25bps in May.

We’ll report any changes as they get announced.

Your best interest is my only interest.

As always, I welcome your comments, calls and questions.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

 

Posted 1 Comment on Bond rates up 0.30%…and 5 yr mortgages at 2.99% disappear.. for now. Interest rates

Bond rates up 0.30%…and 5 yr mortgages at 2.99% disappear.. for now.

Last week we saw 5 yr fixed mortgage rates hit 2.99% for the first time ever (these are full featured mortgages, not No Frills products).   But these rates didn’t last long… just 3 days later, bond yields spiked up and mortgage rates followed…  5 yr fixed rates now sit at 3.09%.

The 5 year Govt of Canada bond yields are up 0.30% since July 24th, and are currently sitting at 1.42%.  That’s a 26% increase in 2 weeks.  These bond yields have a direct effect on 5 yr fixed mortgage rates.     If bond yields continue to go up, we could see mortgage rates go up further.    Looking further ahead, the 2yr Govt of Canada bond yields provide us with a 6 month outlook…  they have also gone up from 0.93% to 1.16%, a 20% increase… if the yields stay at this level, we should look for rates to go up slightly…

Still, these are historical low rates… anything under 4.00% is ridiculously low…  We haven’t seen 5 yr fixed rates under 4.00% for over 40 yrs..  This isn’t time to panic…it’s still a great time to borrow money…

This seems to be an ongoing pattern.  Rates go up temporarily, then they drop… they go up, then they drop…    We’ve been stuck in this cycle for over 2 years.  But hey, who’s complaining?  Not anyone with a mortgage….not any real estate investors… this means money is cheap….. and it makes investing in real estate a very attractive option.

For those of us with a pension or if you are heavily invested in stocks, bonds or mutual funds, then you won’t like these low rates as they are keeping your Return On Investment very low……  Personally, I have some money in mutual funds and some stocks…..I started with my RRSP in 1990…. they were supposed to be a safe, long-term investments…. The only problem is, I’ve never made any positive return… Sound familiar?   The only ones making money are the Fund Managers (with their 2% Management fees) and Investment Advisors (with their 5% or 6% Deferred Sales Charges).

I lost my appetite for stocks and mutual funds, in 2000… the year of the dot com, dot bomb, internet stock market crash… the markets have been a roller coaster ride ever since… I got off that ride in 2004 and have never looked back.

If you’re looking for investment strategies in mortgages and real estate, drop me a line or give me a call… I’d be happy to share some of my knowledge and experiences of others that are enjoying positive returns elsewhere.

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114  steve@mortgagenow.ca

 

 

Posted Interest rates

Wanna know where rates are going? Look at 2 yr bond yields.

Probably the most popular question asked is, “where are rates heading?”  Or “when will they go up?”   Let’s face it, if you have a mortgage or are invested in real estate, then you better know the answer or understand what affects rates.  After all, interest rates can make or break a housing market.

We decided to take a few minutes to explain how you can follow the indicators that affect interest rate movement….  We won’t make you a Financial Expert, but you will gain a better understanding of what affects rate movements…

My first suggestion is to stop paying so much attention to the news or TV… (apologies to my media friends)… but the wild headlines are there to grab your attention…  it’s not that difficult to understand…

Last week, the Bank of Canada met for the 5th time in 2012.   There are 8 scheduled meetings each year… (and by the way, this helps to keep rate movement and monetary policy more predictable…. the more predictable a Govt is, the more stable it’s economy is.)   The Key Rate is set during these meetings… this rate directly affects Variable rate mortgages…. No surprise, the Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney, kept the rate unchanged.

That means Bank Prime is still 3.00%.   And with more negative economic news from Greece, Spain, other parts of Europe, the U.S, and now Canada, it’s safe to say rates should remain flat for some time……(remember, bad economic news usually means rates will drop or stay low).

So the Bank of Canada’s Key Rate (also known as Target Rate or Overnight rate) directly affects Variable rate mortgages… but indirectly, they also affect Fixed Rates.   A better short term indicator to watch is the 5 yr Govt of Cda bond yield.   We watch this to see where fixed rates are headed in the short term… say, over the next few days or or few weeks.   A good long term indicator for Fixed rates is the 2 yr Gov of Cda bond yields.   Financial Experts  pay very close attention to this index if they want to know where rates are going in 6 months or longer.  And at present, the 2 yr yields are very low…..

Bottom line, rates should remain low for some time…   Not so hard to follow, right?

And not to confuse you, but historically, Fixed rates usually go up ahead of Variable rates…. so we need to watch Bond yields together, with the Bank of Canada’s Key Rate to gauge where rates are going…

Hope this helps… and as always, feel free to call or email me…

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114

steve@mortgagenow.ca

Posted 32 Comments on BMO’s No-Frills 2.9932 mortgage offer is not ground breaking…just another trap by the Big Banks.. Interest rates

BMO’s No-Frills 2.99% mortgage offer is not ground breaking…just another trap by the Big Banks..

EXTRA, EXTRA, READ ALL ABOUT IT…. 5 years fixed No-Frills mortgage for 2.99% by BMO….wow, can you believe it?    Well, don’t get too excited…  At CanadaMortgageNews.ca we  give you the straight talk…  and guess what, No-Frills mortgages aren’t anything new…

I’m giving a BIG THUMBS DOWNS to this product… and you should too…

I’ve had access to these products in the past and we still have access to them….  but I have NEVER recommended it to any of my clients….  the limitations can be too costly and any potential savings can easily be eaten away with prepayment penalties, fees and the inability to even exit the mortgage…. That’s right, you can’t exit the mortgage in many cases…  read on, I’ll explain more..

Make sure you understand how the rates are calculated

Before you start thanking BMO and putting your arm around the banker’s back, you should understand that rates have been inflated for several months… they should actually be much lower…..

Fixed mortgage rates are closely priced to the Govt of Cda bond yields.   5 year Bond yields have been below 1.50% since Nov 1….and have been hovering at around 1.30% since Dec 1.   Historically, the best discounted rates are between 1.25% and 1.50% above the bond yields….  That means fixed rates should be at around 2.80%…. Okay, let’s add in a premium for some market uncertainty….  That doesn’t explain why 5 yr Fixed mortgage rates have not been below 3.29%?

Well, I think Canadians are smart enough to know why the savings hasn’t been passed down to them….  yup, Banks are just maximizing their profits…  And now, this past week, we saw an announcement that BMO was announcing a special low rate…  5 years fixed for 2.99% …  WOW, that does sound great…doesn’t it?    Well, maybe not… let’s take a closer look before giving this product the ‘thumbs up’.

A closer look at BMO’s NO-Frills 2.99% special

There are too many limitations to this product…

-maximum amortization is 25 years.   your prepayment privileges is reduced to and annual lump sum payment of 10% of the original principal balance and you can only increase your payment by 10%.

-90 day rate hold instead of the usual 120 day rate hold.

-you cannot payout this mortgage prior to maturity unless through a bona fide sale…

-you can only refinance the mortgage with BMO and not with any other lender before maturity…. this will all but eliminate your ability to negotiate the rate… a huge loss for borrowers….  ( you can take your mortgage with you if you move to another house but if you need more money, you will have to negotiate the rate… do you really think BMO will give you the best rate at that time???).

-BMO’s penalty calculation… the BIG SIX banks have the worst penalty calculation formula in Canada.   This is one of the biggest kept secrets in the industry… If you had to pay your mortgage early, for any reason.. or if you had to refinance, you would be hit with a penalty calculation that could break your savings account…  That’s because the BIG SIX banks use a formula that makes you pay for your mortgage discount, for the entire term of the mortgage… read this article on how they do it…. don’t get caught having to pay a 10, 12, 14 month interest penalty….  (just worked out a mortgage penalty for a client.. if they stayed with RBC, they would have to pay a penalty of $7,000, if they went with one of our wholesale lenders, they would only pay $2,000.  this penalty calculating formula is similar to BMO).

By the way, the competition has responded and bettered BMO’s offer

There is some good news to BMO coming out with this product…  just as we are writing this, we see that a big lender has come out with a 4 year fixed rate of 2.99% with NO restrictions or limitations…  For us, that eliminates BMO’s Low rate special as a serious competitor in the mortgage market.  But thank you, BMO, for pushing the Lenders…

My advice, stay away from these No Frills mortgage…   speak with your mortgage broker and get full disclosure on this and other products before making any decisions that could end up costing you dearly…

Posted Interest rates

Bond market drops… expect fixed rates to follow.

It’s the morning after the US govt agreed on a new Debt Ceiling…… and like a scene from ‘The Hangover’, many of us are waking up to unfamiliar surroundings with a big headache and an uncertain feeling in our stomach…. let’s call it a ‘financial hangover’.   The global stock markets are down…..giving back all gains made this year…  The Chinese credit agency has downgraded the US credit rating...

The 5 year Canada govt bond yields has dropped to 1.84%...  A level only seen twice before…  first, just after the October 2008 US mortgage crisis and again late last year.

So what’s the good news??   This should mean lower fixed mortgage rates are coming… let’s hope the Banks move as fast to cut the rate as they do when they raise them.   This also means less chance of any rate hikes….

Enjoy the low rates.