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Posted 1 Comment on Bond rates up 0.30%…and 5 yr mortgages at 2.99% disappear.. for now. Interest rates

Bond rates up 0.30%…and 5 yr mortgages at 2.99% disappear.. for now.

Last week we saw 5 yr fixed mortgage rates hit 2.99% for the first time ever (these are full featured mortgages, not No Frills products).   But these rates didn’t last long… just 3 days later, bond yields spiked up and mortgage rates followed…  5 yr fixed rates now sit at 3.09%.

The 5 year Govt of Canada bond yields are up 0.30% since July 24th, and are currently sitting at 1.42%.  That’s a 26% increase in 2 weeks.  These bond yields have a direct effect on 5 yr fixed mortgage rates.     If bond yields continue to go up, we could see mortgage rates go up further.    Looking further ahead, the 2yr Govt of Canada bond yields provide us with a 6 month outlook…  they have also gone up from 0.93% to 1.16%, a 20% increase… if the yields stay at this level, we should look for rates to go up slightly…

Still, these are historical low rates… anything under 4.00% is ridiculously low…  We haven’t seen 5 yr fixed rates under 4.00% for over 40 yrs..  This isn’t time to panic…it’s still a great time to borrow money…

This seems to be an ongoing pattern.  Rates go up temporarily, then they drop… they go up, then they drop…    We’ve been stuck in this cycle for over 2 years.  But hey, who’s complaining?  Not anyone with a mortgage….not any real estate investors… this means money is cheap….. and it makes investing in real estate a very attractive option.

For those of us with a pension or if you are heavily invested in stocks, bonds or mutual funds, then you won’t like these low rates as they are keeping your Return On Investment very low……  Personally, I have some money in mutual funds and some stocks…..I started with my RRSP in 1990…. they were supposed to be a safe, long-term investments…. The only problem is, I’ve never made any positive return… Sound familiar?   The only ones making money are the Fund Managers (with their 2% Management fees) and Investment Advisors (with their 5% or 6% Deferred Sales Charges).

I lost my appetite for stocks and mutual funds, in 2000… the year of the dot com, dot bomb, internet stock market crash… the markets have been a roller coaster ride ever since… I got off that ride in 2004 and have never looked back.

If you’re looking for investment strategies in mortgages and real estate, drop me a line or give me a call… I’d be happy to share some of my knowledge and experiences of others that are enjoying positive returns elsewhere.

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114  steve@mortgagenow.ca

 

 

Posted Consumer Debt

Shhh…Interest rates are still at record lows… and Canadians are making huge prepayments.

 IT’S OKAY TO FEEL GOOD ABOUT LOW INTEREST RATES

I’m sure this isn’t what our Federal govt wants you to hear.   But it’s true… Fixed rates are in the low 3.00%s….  So why aren’t we feeling good about this?   Why isn’t everyone happy?   Record low interest rates means less interest cost to you… it means low housing costs…It means you are saving money.

A mortgage is the biggest debt most of us will ever have…  We all talk about mortgage rates with our friends, co-workers and family…. It’s a popular subject… But for some reason, we aren’t feeling good about these low rates…  It’s almost like we should be feeling a little guilty, like the cat that swallowed the canary… do you feel like that?

Could it be that we have been beaten to death with negative messages by the Federal Minister of Finance?   Housing Bubble coming!!!…. personal debt levels rising!!… higher interest rates coming…!!   Maple Leafs win Stanley cup (oops, had to throw that one in)… we’ve been talking about these same things for years… yet they haven’t happened!  I’m not saying these aren’t concerns but I think some of these have been overstated without providing enough proof or evidence.

The govt doesn’t want you to borrow at these rates…   They are afraid you would be too irresponsible and would borrow more than you could afford… (never mind the fact that you must qualify at BANK POSTED rates which are 2.00% higher than these wholesale mortgage rates…)

NEW STATISTICS SHOW WE ARE RESPONSIBLE AND NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF TROUBLE

By the way… the strange part about all this “boy that cried wolf” noise from the govt, is that there really isn’t any proof that we are in trouble….  That’s right..  Mortgage Arrears are low and have been low for over a decade… Affordability is better than it was 20 years ago!   (low rates have helped but increases in income have also factored in)…

And how about this stat that just came out….Around 23% of Canadian mortgage borrowers have increased their regular mortgage payments by $400 to $500 per month.  19% are making lump sum payments of around $12,500 per year.   That works out to over $20billion in extra payments towards their mortgages.  Or put another way, over 1 million mortgage holders out of the estimated 5.85million mortgage holders in Canada are paying far more than the minimum payment.   Does this sound like a country of irresponsible borrowers? … (source Financial Post).

Either the govt’s message has sunk in, or there really wasn’t as big a problem as we were led to believe…. I’ll let you be the judge…

But we could be facing a ‘Made in Canada’ problem as this article states… .  With the govt planning to make the biggest changes in history with  mortgage and HELOC lending, they will be affecting a large segment of new borrowers but even more EXISTING borrowers… they will force a large percentage of Canadians to sell their homes, close their businesses or seek higher interest debt….  And why?  What purpose does it serve?  The stats tell us we are fine…

House prices are hot in Toronto but they are cold in the rest of Canada…  The govt is providing a solution to problem that doesn’t exist.

If you aren’t sure if you could benefit from today’s low rates,  or how these proposed new lending changes will affect you, give me a call or send me an email…  I’d be happy to discuss your options.

Steve Garganis

Posted Interest rates

Bank of Canada suggests rate hikes soon…

The Bank of Canada met on Tuesday for the 3rd of eight scheduled meetings this year to set the Bank of Canada rate.  As expected, no rate change… But there were some language in the meeting that suggests we could start to see rates go up as early as this year…. here’s an article from The Star and reaction from TD’s Economist.

In short, it appears and I stress the word, appears, as though Mr. Carney is warning us that interest rates will be rising sometime soon.   But Economists aren’t buying into that warning just yet.   There is still too much uncertainly about the global, U.S. and domestic economies.    And as long as these concerns persist, then interest rates should remain low.

SOME EXPERTS DON’T BELIEVE ALL THE DOOM AND GLOOM STORIES

It’s true, we have experienced emergency interest rates for over 3 years now…  It’s no secret the govt is concerned about Canadians get into too much debt.  You’ve heard the figures.  The average Canadians owes around 153% of their annual income…. concerns about a housing bubble.   But how does that compare with the rest of the world?  Here’s an interesting article from the Financial Post’s Andrew Coyne, which says there are other countries that carry 200% and 300% of their annual income in personal debt… there doesn’t seem to be the level of concern about their economies.  So why are we in such a panic?

It appears we are at a point where rates could go up but a lot of things would have to fall into place before that happens… it could take 6, 9 months or even a few years before that happens… maybe longer…?   Any rate increase is sure to be slow….  Don’t panic… if you see an opportunity where you can benefit from these low rates, then act on it… don’t let the media scare you into inaction or lack of action…..

And as always, speak with a professional that can discuss and explain the different mortgage products and trends… make an informed choice.

Posted Interest rates

Flaherty is, isn’t, is, isn’t changing mortgage rules?

So which report do you want to believe….?  2 separate reports… both from April 10, 2012.     We have Reuter’s reporting that Canada’s Finance Minister Flaherty, isn’t making any changes to mortgage rules….  Click here for their report.   Here’s a quote from the article “I have no present plans to intervene in the housing market in Canada,” Flaherty told reporters in New York.

And here’s another report from Bloomberg.com entitled “Flaherty Says He’s Planning Changes on CMHC Rules.” Click here for their report.   Are you confused yet?    Well, you’re not alone.   The mixed messages are everywhere today.   Bank of Canada Carney warning about record high Personal Debt Levels…. you’ve seen this one, I’m sure.   We have too much personal debt… and then another report says Canadians are ready to tackle their debt level… and yet another one that say the economy is very fragile and is at risk of slowing down…

It’s hard to know which report is correct.   One thing is certain… today’s mortgage rates are at historical lows.   The govt and the BANKS don’t want them to last.     If you have a house and some debt, or if you are considering buying a house, then why wouldn’t you take advantage of these low rates…?   I’m NOT saying to go out and borrow more money for a TV or new car or other luxury items…  If you have high interest debt, or higher interest debt than today’s 3.00%+ interest rates, then take action and restructure your finances…   Today’s record low rates won’t last…  You can still benefit from these historically low interest rates.