Taginterest rate forecast

Posted January 16, 2015 Interest rates

So, you think rates are gonna spike up this year? Who says?

Here we go again… The beginning of a new year, and the same annual forecasts for interest rates to go up! Before I share my thoughts.. Here’s some of the recent headlines that I’ve seen….

a report by CBC News sharing 4 ways to prepare.. including selling your home, waiting to buy and locking into a Fixed rate mortgage! (Can you say panic?)
Here’s another from The Globe and Mail telling us it’s “Bad News for Borrowers: The economy could improve this year”. Really? Tell that to the people in Alberta, Newfoundland and Saskatchewan.
And this one from last week says Get ready for Interest Rate Shock in 2015.

Wow, reading this means rates are certain to up this year…right? So let’s see.. we should sell our home, put off buying (yet again) and lock in our Variable rates into Fixed rate mortgages..

Now let’s look at the most recent headlines.. Continue reading “So, you think rates are gonna spike up this year? Who says?”

Posted July 16, 2013 Case study

Looking back 5 years.. which mortgage product did your Banker recommend in 2008?

Remember 2008? It was almost 5 years ago that the U.S. sub-prime mortgage scandal erupted. October 2008, to be exact. That’s almost 5 years ago… And with October and November 2013 renewals being less than 120 days away, we can now lock in some rates for those upcoming renewals. So I thought this would be a great time to see what sort of advice and recommendations the Banks were giving to their mortgage customers.

THE BANK’S ADVICE

The funny thing is, Banks have never changed their advice or strategy. ‘Take a 5 year fixed rate’. That’s all the Banks seem to want to promote. And with good reason… it’s the most profitable product FOR THE BANKS. But historically, it’s NOT the best product to take. There is no historical data that I am aware of that shows taking a 5 year fixed is the best strategy. But I’ll get into that in more detail later. Continue reading “Looking back 5 years.. which mortgage product did your Banker recommend in 2008?”

Posted January 24, 2013 Interest rates

Interest rates to stay low for longer than expected…

The, soon to be, ex-Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney, is leaving us with a present… During yesterday’s Rate Announcement, the first of eight regularly scheduled rate meetings this year, Carney said the economy is growing at a slower pace than expected…. we having a cooling housing market….. inflation remains low and is not an immediate concern…. Last but not least, he expects the economy will not reach it’s full capacity in late 2014 and that withdrawing any monetary policy stimulus is less imminent than previously anticipated.

End result, no rate hikes are expected til 2014… These comments come as a bit of a surprise given the Bank of Canada has wanted to raise rates for the past 2 years. Well, maybe it’s Carney’s way of giving us a departing present….Let’s not look a gift horse in the mouth. Continue reading “Interest rates to stay low for longer than expected…”

Posted September 25, 20121 Comment Mortgage Rates

Listings down, prices up…. housing bubble?

Latest housing stats show listings are down, sales are down… but prices are up, only slightly…. and houses aren’t on the market as long. They are selling faster. Doesn’t sound like a bubble to me. More like a soft landing.

This is exactly what the govt had in mind when it changed mortgage rules a few months ago and made it tougher to qualify for a mortgage. It’s still too early to say if these changes are just right or went too far….. We’ll need another 6 months or so to see the full effect. Best guesses are that the housing market could slow by 5%. But I haven’t seen that happen… In the Greater Toronto area, we are still seeing multiple offers and sales go above asking price…. The interesting stat for me is the fewer number of sales… We’ll be watching that stat… fewer sales over an extended period of time will stop any price increases…

This also means we should expect interest rates to remain low. The Bank of Canada will be under less pressure to raise rates with a flat housing market. Throw in the U.S. Fed’s announcement last week that they were going to keep rates the same until 2014-15, and we have the perfect setting for low rates.

RECORD LOW INTEREST ARE STILL HERE…. WHY AREN’T WE TALKING ABOUT THIS?

Speaking of low interest rates… Here’s some advice… before you put your plans to buy on hold, you should remember that we are still enjoying historically low interest rates. 5 year fixed rates at 3.09%… Variable rates at 2.65%..!! This is a fact that so many of us tend to ignore…. maybe it’s just too boring to talk about. I’ll make it more exciting…

A $400k mortgage will carry for $1912/mth based on today’s 3.09% 5 yr fixed rate…….Wanna wait for house prices to fall and save some money? Ok, but you should also expect interest rates to rise… lower house prices are caused by higher interest rates and higher unemployment… We don’t expect higher unemployment so we must attribute any house price drop to a rise in interest rates……a look back at the last housing crash in 1989 showed interest rates went up to 11% and 12% just before the crash….. make sense so far?

This is where so many of us stop thinking or analyzing…Cashflow and affordability are probably just as important or more important than rate, mortgage balance, purchase price, etc… if you aren’t comfortable with the payment, you will run into problems…. By the way, affordability is still VERY good according the RBC affordability index.

REAL MORTGAGE MATH SHOWS TRUE COST OF WAITING TO BUY

Let’s continue….Let’s say rates go to more normal levels… we’ll use 5% interest rates.. That same $400k mortgage will cost you $2326/mth.…. and if you wanna adjust the mortgage size by $40k because house prices should fall 10%, okay… a $360k mortgage at 5% will cost you $2094/mth... That’s still $182/mth more… and let’s also not forget, that you may have lost 1, 2, 3 or more years of not paying a mortgage down…. Did you know you will pay your mortgage down by around $10k per year in the first 3 yrs alone?

Real Estate isn’t always a great investment, but it usually makes more sense to buy, hold and enjoy, than it does not to buy and rent…. And with interest rates at record lows, it’s even easier to make that recommendation. Stop listening to the pessimist that say the sky is falling or the world is ending… If we listened to them, we would be renting for the last 10+ years… for that’s how long they have been saying house prices are inflated and need to drop…..

As always, if you aren’t sure where you fit in or what’s best for you, feel free to contact me to discuss… Your questions and comments are welcome.

Steve Garganis

steve@mortgagenow.ca

416 224 0114

Posted October 5, 2011 Interest rates

BMO Economist forecast no rate hikes til 2013

More good news…. interest rates are not expected to increase til 2013, according to Bank of Montreal.

Really no surprise here. The global economy is not doing well. But here in Canada, the economy is performing relatively well. The only reason our stock market and Canadian $ are down is because of the uncertainty of the European debt crisis.

5 year fixed rates are hovering at 3.39%… and they are even lower for qualified borrowers…. Variable rates are at around 2.60%… We are in record low territory.

Did you know a $300,000 mortgage will carry for as little as $1199/month? Hey, if you’re paying $1400/mth for rent, then why not consider buying place of your own… And for those that want off the stock market roller coaster, a rental property may just be what you need… Best thing is to talk to a Mortgage Broker, crunch the numbers and see how it looks. It’s probably easier than you think.