Housing bubble is coming… again?

You’ve seen them before.. but they went silent for a few years.  I’m talking about the housing bears.  The pessimists that say house prices are too high and will crash.  A housing bubble.

Are they right?  Maybe.  But here’s the thing.  We’ve been hearing that house prices are too high for over a decade.  One of the more vocal pessimists is David Madani, Economist for Capital Economics.

HOUSING BUBBLE?

Madani was on BNN this past week saying we are in a ‘Full blown housing bubble’.   Hmmm, that sounds familiar.  Let me think… when did I hear that before?  Oh, that’s right, 2011.   He said, we could see house prices drop by 25% in 2011.  And he was completely wrong. (hope you didn’t listen to him). Read the rest of this entry »

Trump’s George Ross says Canada’s Housing market is undervalued….

George RossGeorge Ross is Donald Trump’s Executive VP.  He’s Trump’s senior advisor and has worked with Trump for 30 years.   You’ve probably seen him on TV on ‘The Apprentice’.   This week, he was quoted as saying Canada’s real estate market is undervalued, not overvalued.    That’s quite the opposite of what the so-called experts have been saying for 8 or 9 years.  (by the way, where are those experts now?)

If you listen to his interview, he makes some good points.   Office properties have more upward potential than residential properties.  But the residential market follows the Office or commercial market.   He also says that buying a house for a quick flip isn’t a good strategy.    It may sound good on the TV shows, but it’s a risky game to play.   Mr. Ross says more fortunes have been lost in real estate than have been made.   Read the rest of this entry »

Darryl Sittler made his fortune in real estate, not hockey.

RRSP home buyers planLast week, I had the privilege of attending REIN’s (Real Estate Investment Network) monthly workshop.  One of my childhood idols was a guest speaker.  I’m talking about Darryl Sittler, the former captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs.   In case you haven’t heard of REIN, let me share some details about this group of professionals.

REIN is a group of real estate investors that get together to network and share valuable information that affects real estate in Canada.   The leader of the group is Don Campbell.   If you haven’t heard of him, you should.  His approach to buying investment properties has proven to be very sound and profitable.  His “top ten best cities to invest” is legendary. Read the rest of this entry »

Doomsday real estate prophecy….enough already!

This pic might best capture the image that comes to mind when I hear the phrase ‘real estate crash’.   Don’t adjust your screen.  This isn’t a hoax.   This 12 story building collapsed in 2009 shortly after it was completed.

Note how the building remained intact after it fell.   That is truly amazing.   Clearly, it was well-built.  But note the hollow concrete piers with no rebar.   This is a great example of how even the best built building will fall if it has a weak foundation.

Our U.S. neighbors to the south learned about weak foundations in 2008.   The U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis was caused by Banks offering mortgages to anyone with a pulse.   There was little to no qualifying for a mortgage.  You could buy or refinance up 110% of the value of the home!   Mortgages were being given to those that didn’t qualify.  This was the root of the U.S. housing crash.

HOW DOES CANADA STACK UP?

But is this what the future looks like for Canada’s housing market?    We keep hearing reports about the imminent Canadian housing bubble.  It’s coming… soon… no, really.   We’ve heard this continually for the last 5 years.   You just have to wake up and turn on the TV, radio or computer.   It’s full of Doomsday forecasters.   But reality is very different.   Listen to facts and forecasts from proven sources….  Take CMHC’s most recent report released in the 4th quarter of 2012.  They are calling for a stable housing market in 2013.  Average house prices will stop climbing and remain flat.  Rental vacancy rates will stay low.   Click here for CMHC’s Q4 report.

The forecast isn’t calling for any huge price drop as the media would have you believe.  It’s boring news… but that’s good news for us.  CMHC’s historical forecasts have been pretty accurate.  And they probably have more data at their fingertips than any other organization.   The Doomsday forecasters don’t seem to reference this report… but I suggest we give more consideration to accredited reports…

Speaking of Doomsday… I saw a good article in The Financial Post entitled ‘Are we worrying ourselves into a housing crash’?  A great question… and they quote 2 of my favorite Economists and Financial Experts, Moshe Milevsky and Benjamin Tal.   Both believe we won’t see a housing collapse like the U.S. had.  The fundamentals are very different.  But they think that if we keep talking about a crash, then it could  speed up and prolong any housing slowdown.

To me, Canada is like the 12 story building, strong and intact.   The U.S. was like the foundation…hollow and weak.   Let’s make sure understand the differences before we write off our housing market.

As always, I welcome your questions and comments.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

 

Sell your home with a below market interest rate

Saw an article this week that talked about low mortgage rates being used an incentive to help sell your home faster.   Most mortgages are assumable, meaning the buyer of your home can take them over upon qualification.

If interest rates increased significantly, then having a 3.69% mortgage could lead some buyers to your home.

Another strategy that is used during a slower housing market is to buy the interest rate down to below market rates… this is something that would need to be negotiated at the time of signing the mortgage but it is offered by a few major lenders…

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