Mortgage rates went up…. but why? And will they continue to go up?

fearup down graph

A month ago, I said Fixed mortgage rates probably hit the bottom.   A week later, fixed mortgage rates started to go up… around 0.20% over the past 3 weeks.  Variable rate mortgage pricing has gone from Prime less 0.65% to Prime less Prime less 0.40%.

Now, here’s the thing….  I don’t think rates will skyrocket over the next 6 or 12 months, like the pessimists would have you believe.  I think mortgage rates hit the bottom….BUT, they probably won’t go up very quickly.

In fact, the forecast now is for the Bank of Canada rate to stay the same until 2017.   This is just another example of how the world has become a smaller place.  If someone sneezes in Germany, we catch a cold.  With most of the global economies just getting by, there isn’t much reason for mortgage rates to go crazy.   They should remain low.

The key driver for rates going up recently is nothing more than profit taking.  Banks have had a great year… In case you didn’t know.  That’s right.. we seem to forget that 2015 was one of the best years on record for real estate and mortgage volume…  and house prices have never been higher.    Funny how that seems to get lost in the media reports.

Look for Variable rate pricing to fall in the new year…  Fixed rates could also come down slightly, but don’t count on them hitting the record lows that we saw this summer.   Hey, that’s not to say rates are bad.   We are still well under 3.00%.   These are ridiculously low mortgage rates.    Enjoy them while you can.

Your best interest is my only interest.   I reply to all questions and I welcome your comments.  Like this article?  Share with a friend.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114

Paris attacks won’t change human kindness.. Maybe this story will help to brighten your day.

car accidentLast week, I started writing this article.. but just couldn’t find time to finish.. And then, the Paris terrorist attacks happened.  How tragic and senseless.  Well, maybe this article will lift your spirits just a bit.

About a month ago, I had an interesting experience… I was parked downtown… was walking back to my truck and noticed a note on the windshield.    It read, “I hit the front corner of your truck!!  I’m so sorry. You can contact me…  416 123 4567 (I’m blocking out the true number)  Shannon”.

I had a look at the front of my truck and sure enough the bumper had been pushed in.   I’ll admit, my first reaction was anger and bit of self pity… you know, ‘why did this happen to me?’..  That sort of thing.

But then I started to wonder… was this phone number real or did someone just write a note to make it look like they were doing the right thing?    I quickly called that number …  sure enough, Shannon was real.  She answered and was so apologetic.   She felt very bad about what happened.

I quickly stopped her and said, “it’s ok.  Accidents happen all the time.  You did what many others wouldn’t do.  You stepped up and took responsibility.  I’m so thankful that you did.   Honesty and honor are just words to some people.  You are clearly a person of honor.  Thank you for being honest.”

Shannon turned a bad situation into a good experience.  As strange as this sounds, I actually felt pretty good the rest of the day.

Last week, I brought my truck in for the repair.  Shannon was true to her word and paid the autobody shop and also paid for my car rental.

Thank you Shannon…. for showing me there are still good, honest people in this world.. taking responsibility for their actions.    Thank you for making me believe in the human spirit.   I hope I can pay it forward one day.

Hope this brightens your day, just a little.

Your best interest is my only interest.   I reply to all questions and I welcome your comments.  Like this article?  Share with a friend.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114

Mortgage cost today is $1380/mth for every $300k… and sharing high net worth secrets.

percentageFixed mortgage rates went up this week on the wholesale market.   Only about a 0.10% increase…  We are still way below 3.00% for 5 yr fixed rates. Hey, that’s pretty good!  (watch for the media to blow it out of proportion soon.. they seem to love feeding on negativity).

Thought I’d share some quick numbers..    Did you know that a $300k mortgage will still carry for $1380/mth?   And that’s with a 25 yr amortization.  If we go to a 30 year amort, the payment drops to $1221/mth.

Let’s increase the mortgage to $400k.. payments are $1840/mth and $1628/mth for a 25 and 30 year amortization, respectively.   Hey, these are still incredibly low mortgage rates.   Anything under 4.00% should be considered a gift.  (I’ll get into what Canada’s wealthy are doing in a few moments) Read the rest of this entry »

Trudeau sworn in as new PM, and bond yields jump leading to higher fixed mortgage rates!

Trudeal Liberal majorityYesterday, our new Prime Minister gets sworn in.  Justin Trudeau is Canada’s 23rd Prime Minister.   Some interesting facts…  Bond yields have gone up significantly in the last 2 weeks, since the election.  Fixed rates are priced directly from the Govt of Cda Bond yields.  If the yields go up, then fixed mortgage rates go up.  If they go down, then fixed mortgage rates go down.

Since the election on Oct 19, the bond yields have made a steady climb upwards.  Going from around 0.80% to 0.97% today..     Investors seem to think the Trudeau govt will keep it’s promise and spend our way to prosperity.   The concern is that if the govt of Canada increases its borrowing, the borrowing costs will go up.  Meaning it will cost the govt more, which in turn affects personal borrowing costs.   That’s you and I.

Watch for fixed mortgage rates to climb over the next month or so.  Right now, the increase is expected to be minimal…. but that could change.

I’ll be watching and reporting how this plays out.   Let’s hope the campaign promise of increasing the deficit was one of those promises that doesn’t get honored.   If you want to keep borrowing costs low, then you also want less govt, not more.

Your best interest is my only interest.   I reply to all questions and I welcome your comments.  Like this article?  Share with a friend.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114

Today is your last chance to stop DOUBLING of Land Transfer Tax.

kathleen wynneAs this is such an important issue, I’m gonna repeat my last article.  Today is the last day to voice your opinion to our Provincial govt and tell them how you feel about the possibility of DOUBLING your Land Transfer Tax.     The govt is accepting all opinions until today.

The Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing is Ted McMeekin… You can email his office through Mark Cripps at and by phone at 416 585 6842.

In case you don’t know what Land Transfer Tax is… the province charges a tax to the purchaser, every time a home is sold.  Yup, another cash grab.  It’s kinda like when you buy a new car… when you buy it, you are charged sales tax (today, that’s 13%… remember when it was 7% and 8%?  seeing a pattern here anyone?).   And when you sell that car, the sales tax is levied once again to the new purchaser…when they sell it, the new purchaser must pay this sales tax again… and so on, and so on.    But why?  Why should a sales tax be charged over and over again?   Can anyone explain this?

If you buy a house, and sell in 2 or 3 or 10 yrs, the govt charges this Land Transfer Tax.  It’s ridiculous and it’s not a fair system of levying a charge..   Yet, it’s something that has been accepted as the norm.

In Toronto, the mayor couldn’t balance the budget so he seeked special powers from the Province to introduce a Toronto Land Transfer Tax in 2008.  Yup, they just created a new tax out of thin air and slammed all property buyers with a double tax..   Nice, eh?

Look, if you are as upset with this as I am, then take 2 mins and send an email to the govt.   It’s one thing to bring into a major city like Toronto, but to bring into all communities across the province would be disastrous.   Not all of Ontario is experiencing prosperity.  This is shameful.  I don’t like making strong statements like that.  But I can’t help myself.

Stand up Ontarians!  Have your say.

Your best interest is my only interest.   I reply to all questions and I welcome your comments.  Like this article?  Share with a friend.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114

New Land Transfer Tax for ALL of Ontario??!! Ms. Wynne, stop the madness!

kathleen wynneDid you know that in 2008, the city of Toronto was given special powers by the Provincial govt to bring their own municipal land transfer tax?   Since then, homebuyers in Toronto have had to pay 2 land transfer taxes.  The Provincial one and the municipal one.

On a $500,000 home, Land Transfer tax in Toronto is $12,200.  In the rest of Ontario, it’s $6475.  On a $750,000 home, LTT in Toronto is $22,200. The rest of Ontario, it’s $11,475.  It’s a sliding scale with the % going up the more your home is worth.

Yesterday, October 27th (remember this date), we saw news reports that the Ontario provincial  is considering extending those same special powers to the rest of Ontario.    I’ll repeat that… the Provincial govt, led by Ms. Kathleen Wynne, is considering extending special powers to allow the rest of Ontario to add their own municipal land transfer tax.  Read the rest of this entry »

Have Fixed mortgage rates hit the bottom?

record low ratesEarlier this year, Fixed rates hit new all-time lows.  This must sounds like a broken record, or for those in the modern error, sounds like a glitch or a skip (somehow, ‘broken record’ sounds better).

5 year fixed rates hit 2.59%.  This is the lowest we have ever seen. (before you start emailing me that you’ve seen lower rates, yes, I know.. I see them too and have access to them.. but those products are full of restrictions, limitations and inflated prepayment penalty calculations… for our purposes, I’m only discussing quality mortgage products with no gimmicks or strings attached).

Now, looking at the 5 yr govt of Cda bond yields (this is where fixed rates are closely priced from), we have seen this drop down to as low as 0.70%… it’s been holding steady in the 0.80% range since July.    Normally, the 5 fixed rate is priced 1.10% to 1.50% above the 5 yr bond yield..  but the spread has been at or over 1.79% for quite a while.   So, why haven’t the fixed rates gone down further? Read the rest of this entry »


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