It may seem hard to believe but Canada’s core inflation rate is down in February to lowest level since 1984 as reported by CBC. It’s now 0.90%.
Filling up my car at the gas pumps or buying groceries is certainly costing me more… So how can the inflation rate be lower be lower?
The Core inflation rate strips away food and energy costs resulting in a lower rate of inflation.
The Bank of Canada has a Target inflation rate of 2%. The Target range is 1% to 3%. When you combine a high Canadian $dollar that is at par with the $US dollar and this low inflation rate, the Bank of Canada less likely to raise the Target Rate….for now.
Here are a few forecasts… Citigroup says a rate hike will not take place in April but instead, July. And retired RBC Chief Economist, Patricia Croft says to watch the Bank of Canada 2 year bond yields for an indication of where the market thinks rates are headed. The yields have dropped from 1.90% to 1.68%. She says the market thinks rates won’t go up til October and only by 35bps. But she thinks we should be ready for summer rate hikes. The next few inflation reports will play a big part in the Bank of Canada’s future decisions.
I tend to agree with both forecasts… Summer rate hikes are likely…. but I’m not sure how high and how quickly these rate hikes will happen. We’ll be watching and reporting.