CategoryMortgage Rates

Posted December 18, 20122 Comments Case study

Fed govt, BIG SIX BANK’s pushed us into Fixed rates!…part 2 of 2.

IT’S NO COINCIDENCE THAT THE BIG SIX BANKS CONTINUE TO REPORT RECORD PROFITS.

The Bankers were onto something. Now if they could only keep Variable rate pricing higher or make it tougher to get a Variable rate mortgage…. In 2010, the Fed govt would help increase those Bank profits…All new Variable rate mortgage borrowers would need to qualify at the Bank posted 5 year fixed rate. The Feds said they had to tighten Mortgage Lending Rules… They had to make it tougher to qualify for a mortgage with fluctuating interest rates to ensure we would not have a ‘housing bubble’ and a ‘mortgage default problem’… This pushed out 5% more borrowers from qualifying for, and benefiting from Variable rates. And by the way, at that time, Variable rates ranged anywhere from 1.50% to 1.95% compared with the best discounted 5 yr fixed rate of 3.89%…..! Anyone seeing a pattern here? (Some stats to remember…Mortgage defaults have been under 0.50% for over 15 years are currently at around 0.33%… this is at or near record lows!!… so where’s the problem??)

This is also when the BIG SIX BANK’S inflated, and unfair mortgage penalty calculation came to light. The lower rates became, the higher mortgage penalties climbed… $10,000, $20,000, $30,000 in mortgage prepayment penalty charges were popping up in mortgage blogs and news sites. Even the media had to jump in and cover some of this… And when Canadians needed a break in their mortgage payments, they were left out in the cold. These inflated penalties made it impossible to get out of their higher Fixed rate mortgages without paying an enormous penalty. Continue reading “Fed govt, BIG SIX BANK’s pushed us into Fixed rates!…part 2 of 2.”

Posted September 25, 20121 Comment Mortgage Rates

Listings down, prices up…. housing bubble?

Latest housing stats show listings are down, sales are down… but prices are up, only slightly…. and houses aren’t on the market as long. They are selling faster. Doesn’t sound like a bubble to me. More like a soft landing.

This is exactly what the govt had in mind when it changed mortgage rules a few months ago and made it tougher to qualify for a mortgage. It’s still too early to say if these changes are just right or went too far….. We’ll need another 6 months or so to see the full effect. Best guesses are that the housing market could slow by 5%. But I haven’t seen that happen… In the Greater Toronto area, we are still seeing multiple offers and sales go above asking price…. The interesting stat for me is the fewer number of sales… We’ll be watching that stat… fewer sales over an extended period of time will stop any price increases…

This also means we should expect interest rates to remain low. The Bank of Canada will be under less pressure to raise rates with a flat housing market. Throw in the U.S. Fed’s announcement last week that they were going to keep rates the same until 2014-15, and we have the perfect setting for low rates.

RECORD LOW INTEREST ARE STILL HERE…. WHY AREN’T WE TALKING ABOUT THIS?

Speaking of low interest rates… Here’s some advice… before you put your plans to buy on hold, you should remember that we are still enjoying historically low interest rates. 5 year fixed rates at 3.09%… Variable rates at 2.65%..!! This is a fact that so many of us tend to ignore…. maybe it’s just too boring to talk about. I’ll make it more exciting…

A $400k mortgage will carry for $1912/mth based on today’s 3.09% 5 yr fixed rate…….Wanna wait for house prices to fall and save some money? Ok, but you should also expect interest rates to rise… lower house prices are caused by higher interest rates and higher unemployment… We don’t expect higher unemployment so we must attribute any house price drop to a rise in interest rates……a look back at the last housing crash in 1989 showed interest rates went up to 11% and 12% just before the crash….. make sense so far?

This is where so many of us stop thinking or analyzing…Cashflow and affordability are probably just as important or more important than rate, mortgage balance, purchase price, etc… if you aren’t comfortable with the payment, you will run into problems…. By the way, affordability is still VERY good according the RBC affordability index.

REAL MORTGAGE MATH SHOWS TRUE COST OF WAITING TO BUY

Let’s continue….Let’s say rates go to more normal levels… we’ll use 5% interest rates.. That same $400k mortgage will cost you $2326/mth.…. and if you wanna adjust the mortgage size by $40k because house prices should fall 10%, okay… a $360k mortgage at 5% will cost you $2094/mth... That’s still $182/mth more… and let’s also not forget, that you may have lost 1, 2, 3 or more years of not paying a mortgage down…. Did you know you will pay your mortgage down by around $10k per year in the first 3 yrs alone?

Real Estate isn’t always a great investment, but it usually makes more sense to buy, hold and enjoy, than it does not to buy and rent…. And with interest rates at record lows, it’s even easier to make that recommendation. Stop listening to the pessimist that say the sky is falling or the world is ending… If we listened to them, we would be renting for the last 10+ years… for that’s how long they have been saying house prices are inflated and need to drop…..

As always, if you aren’t sure where you fit in or what’s best for you, feel free to contact me to discuss… Your questions and comments are welcome.

Steve Garganis

steve@mortgagenow.ca

416 224 0114

Posted August 9, 20121 Comment Interest rates

Bond rates up 0.30%…and 5 yr mortgages at 2.99% disappear.. for now.

Last week we saw 5 yr fixed mortgage rates hit 2.99% for the first time ever (these are full featured mortgages, not No Frills products). But these rates didn’t last long… just 3 days later, bond yields spiked up and mortgage rates followed… 5 yr fixed rates now sit at 3.09%.

The 5 year Govt of Canada bond yields are up 0.30% since July 24th, and are currently sitting at 1.42%. That’s a 26% increase in 2 weeks. These bond yields have a direct effect on 5 yr fixed mortgage rates. If bond yields continue to go up, we could see mortgage rates go up further. Looking further ahead, the 2yr Govt of Canada bond yields provide us with a 6 month outlook… they have also gone up from 0.93% to 1.16%, a 20% increase… if the yields stay at this level, we should look for rates to go up slightly…

Still, these are historical low rates… anything under 4.00% is ridiculously low… We haven’t seen 5 yr fixed rates under 4.00% for over 40 yrs.. This isn’t time to panic…it’s still a great time to borrow money…

This seems to be an ongoing pattern. Rates go up temporarily, then they drop… they go up, then they drop… We’ve been stuck in this cycle for over 2 years. But hey, who’s complaining? Not anyone with a mortgage….not any real estate investors… this means money is cheap….. and it makes investing in real estate a very attractive option.

For those of us with a pension or if you are heavily invested in stocks, bonds or mutual funds, then you won’t like these low rates as they are keeping your Return On Investment very low…… Personally, I have some money in mutual funds and some stocks…..I started with my RRSP in 1990…. they were supposed to be a safe, long-term investments…. The only problem is, I’ve never made any positive return… Sound familiar? The only ones making money are the Fund Managers (with their 2% Management fees) and Investment Advisors (with their 5% or 6% Deferred Sales Charges).

I lost my appetite for stocks and mutual funds, in 2000… the year of the dot com, dot bomb, internet stock market crash… the markets have been a roller coaster ride ever since… I got off that ride in 2004 and have never looked back.

If you’re looking for investment strategies in mortgages and real estate, drop me a line or give me a call… I’d be happy to share some of my knowledge and experiences of others that are enjoying positive returns elsewhere.

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

Posted July 31, 2012 Interest rates

Lenders chop rates again… 2.99%… and Variable rates at Prime less 0.35%!

Today we saw 2 announcements…. For the first time ever, we saw a 5 yr fixed rate being offered for 2.99%. This is not a No Frills mortgage… so you don’t have to worry about minimal prepayment privileges, or restricted payout options, and no monkey business when it comes to penalty calculation…. You probably won’t see a lot of publicity about this because of the mainstream media was quick to promote the BMO NO FRILLS mortgage as the first 5 yr fixed mortgage under 3.00%….earlier this year. But I can tell you, it’s a significant milestone.

And we also saw the introduction of the lowest Variable rate mortgage in almost a year… Prime less 0.35%, or 2.65%. This isn’t one of those NO FRILLS Variable rate mortgages that is full of restrictions… you have all the regular options including being able to lock into the BEST discounted fixed rate at any time.

These 2 offers are very special… They don’t come with hidden clauses or back door penalties, or exit fees. These products are legit!

The driver behind the pricing is competition, the increased spread in profit margins and a slowing housing market.. The thirst to grow a business and keep the business on the books is going to see a lot of competition…. and the winners are us… the borrowers…

If you want more info on these rates or other mortgage related issues, call me anytime.

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114

Posted July 23, 2012 Interest rates

Wanna know where rates are going? Look at 2 yr bond yields.

Probably the most popular question asked is, “where are rates heading?” Or “when will they go up?” Let’s face it, if you have a mortgage or are invested in real estate, then you better know the answer or understand what affects rates. After all, interest rates can make or break a housing market.

We decided to take a few minutes to explain how you can follow the indicators that affect interest rate movement…. We won’t make you a Financial Expert, but you will gain a better understanding of what affects rate movements…

My first suggestion is to stop paying so much attention to the news or TV… (apologies to my media friends)… but the wild headlines are there to grab your attention… it’s not that difficult to understand…

Last week, the Bank of Canada met for the 5th time in 2012. There are 8 scheduled meetings each year… (and by the way, this helps to keep rate movement and monetary policy more predictable…. the more predictable a Govt is, the more stable it’s economy is.) The Key Rate is set during these meetings… this rate directly affects Variable rate mortgages…. No surprise, the Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney, kept the rate unchanged.

That means Bank Prime is still 3.00%. And with more negative economic news from Greece, Spain, other parts of Europe, the U.S, and now Canada, it’s safe to say rates should remain flat for some time……(remember, bad economic news usually means rates will drop or stay low).

So the Bank of Canada’s Key Rate (also known as Target Rate or Overnight rate) directly affects Variable rate mortgages… but indirectly, they also affect Fixed Rates. A better short term indicator to watch is the 5 yr Govt of Cda bond yield. We watch this to see where fixed rates are headed in the short term… say, over the next few days or or few weeks. A good long term indicator for Fixed rates is the 2 yr Gov of Cda bond yields. Financial Experts pay very close attention to this index if they want to know where rates are going in 6 months or longer. And at present, the 2 yr yields are very low…..

Bottom line, rates should remain low for some time… Not so hard to follow, right?

And not to confuse you, but historically, Fixed rates usually go up ahead of Variable rates…. so we need to watch Bond yields together, with the Bank of Canada’s Key Rate to gauge where rates are going…

Hope this helps… and as always, feel free to call or email me…

Steve Garganis

416 224 0114

steve@mortgagenow.ca