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CategoryMortgage Rates

More speculation that interest rates will remain low

We’re starting to see more evidence that the recovery is not going as well as the Bank of Canada first thought.   Inflation has dipped slightly, even with the HST.

CIBC Chief Economist, Avery Shenfeld, says we are beyond the ‘Great Depression of 2008-09 but we are in the ‘Great Disappointment’ of  a sub-par recovery.   He’s forecasting for interest rates to remain flat until the spring of next year, followed by only gradual increases thereafter.

Great news for anyone that has a mortgage…

Mortgage Rate history…25 year chart

Here’s an updated 25 year Interest Rate Chart.   The chart gets updated monthly by Firstline Mortgages, a division of CIBC.   Click here to see the data.

The only surprise is that interest rates didn’t go up as many experts had predicted last year and earlier this year…  To sum up why in just one word……UNCERTAINTY…..  there is a lot of uncertainty about he global recovery and the domestic economy…. watch for interest rates to stay fairly flat through the rest of 2010….

Taking a look at a 1 year and 3 year fixed rates

I’ve had some inquiries about taking a 1 year and 3 year fixed rate…and for good reason.   A 1 year fixed rate can be had for about 2.50% and a 3 year fixed rate is 2.90%.   This does make going with a shorter fixed term an attractive option if Bank Prime rate continues to increase.

Best Variable rate is around Prime less 0.65% or 0.70% for qualified applicants with some conditions….  that puts the Variable rate at 2.30% or 2.35%…

I like Variable rate mortgages for many reasons but these shorter, fixed terms can be a good alternative.. Make sure you understand all the terms and conditions… speak with a qualified Mortgage Broker.

Variable Rate is up 0.25%

Bank of Canada raised their Target Rate by 0.25% to 1.00%.   We will see the Retail Bank’s Prime lending rate go up from 2.75% to 3.00%.

Governor, Mark Carney, said “Any further reduction in monetary stimulus would need to be carefully considered in light of the unusual uncertainty surrounding the outlook,” .    This is sounding like we won’t see any further hikes til some time next year as the Government evaluates the economy and the global markets.

I still like Variable rate… at 2.30% to 2.50%, this is still much better than the 5 year fixed rate of 3.75%, which is what we are seeing today.

3 year fixed mortgage rates under 3.00%

Fixed mortgage rates are sitting at around 3.89% for a 5 year closed and 2.90% for a 3 year closed.  These are definitely attractive rates and are at or near historical lows…

Why?  The Bond market has dropped significantly over the past 3 months…. this has come as a surprise to many but not all…  The economic recovery isn’t as certain as we once thought… with mixed data coming out about our economy, this uncertainty will cause interest rates to stay low…

Once trend that has caught our eye is that lenders are now offering Mortgage Brokers a higher commission to sell a 3 year and a 5 year fixed rate product… and although that may attract more busy from some, I’m still recommending the Variable Rate mortgage, even though we get paid less.. it’s always about doing what’s in our client’s best interest.

Variable rate has been a proven winner over the past 25 years… I don’t think our economy is as strong as some would think….There has been improvement but we have a long way to go before we can say we are out… Hence the lower fixed mortgage rates… Variable rates will increase but it will be a slow, steady climb… with current Variable rates at 2.10%, Variable has a long way to go before it is not cost-effective.