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CategoryMortgage Trends

Mixed views on inflation reports

Here’s a great article that explains there is no reason to panic…   This week saw the much expected hike in mortgage rates… Bond market is up around 0.30% but the Banks felt they needed to increase the rates by 0.60%….

Hmmmm…didn’t the Banks just announce some HUGE discounted rates a week or two ago?   Talk about a strategic PR move…. Well, that didn’t last long…they have all bumped up the Posted rates…

With the Canadian $dollar just about equal with the $U.S. dollar, there is a little less pressure for the Bank of Canada to raise the overnight rate as aggressively as once thought….we can still expect increases of 0.25% to 0.75% over the next 6 to 12 months but remember that we are well below the 10 yr average of 5.177 and well below the 25 year average of 6.92%....Historically, if the $CAD rises, then the Bank of Canada is less likely to raise rates…

3 main factors to watch that will affect the Bank of Canada Rate…. Inflation, unemployment and the $CAD.    Oh, and by the way, here are the 8 preset dates when the Bank of Canada sets the overnight rate.

Tuesday, 19 January 2010
Tuesday, 2 March 2010
Tuesday, 20 April 2010
Tuesday, 1 June 2010
Tuesday, 20 July 2010
Wednesday, 8 September 2010
Tuesday, 19 October 2010
Tuesday, 7 December 2010

Historical rate trends favour variable rates..

Sometimes it’s just easier to see the numbers on a graph.. Here are a few updated graphs from Firstline Trust… Firstline Trust Historical Rates February 2010… Notice the spread between the Bank Prime rate and Fixed Rates… the spread is usually around 1.00% to 2.00% in favour of Variable rates.

Variable rate mortgages have outperformed Fixed rates in over 88% of the time…. here’s a great study by Professor Moshe Milevsky of Schulich School of Business… Milvesky variable rate 2008.    And here’s an article today by the Canadian Press that comments quietly, that Variable Rate should still be considered…

Hey, by the way… did I mention that we are still in historical rate territory?  If you look back at historical rates, you will see that it’s still a GREAT time to borrow money… Fixed rates in the 4.00% range… Variable rates still under 2.00%…  Doesn’t sound too bad to me…

TD and RBC raise rates by 0.60%.

TD and RBC have increased their 5 year posted mortgage rates this morning. We can expect others to follow. This comes as no surprise as the 5 year Bond Market increased to 2.87% causing the margins to shrink.

This is probably the beginning of several increases to come over the coming months. If the Economists are right, then we will see these types of hikes followed by a pause to see how the economy reacts.

We will be paying close attention to inflation, unemployment and the $Canadian dollar.

Fixing or locking in your rate may be an option for some but variable rate mortgages are still around 2.00% below 5 year Fixed Rates.

I’m still a fan of variable rate mortgages. I just think that they are a better product. But hey, that’s just me. We are all different and have different needs. Always talk to a Mortgage Broker to get your needs evaluated.

Interest rate hike coming… no need to panic…

We’ve seen a lot of media coverage about the interest rate hikes coming this summer.. yes, it’s true… The Bank of Canada will raise their overnight rate very soon.. By how much? Maybe 0.75% by the end of the year.. or maybe 1.00% like this these Economists are forecasting as reported in the Globe and Mail.

Think about it.. if you arranged your variable rate mortgage before Oct 2008, then you have been enjoying interest rates below 2.00%… WOW!…I mean come on, are you kidding me?  What’s wrong with that…?

So let’s assume rates go up by 1.00% or even 2.00% like some think it will over the next few years… that would still mean your mortgage is below 4.00%…. And the record low for a 5 year fixed mortgage rate is just below 4.00%…

That’s right… even if rates increase by 2.00%, you would still be in historical low rates when compared to a 5 yr fixed rate…..So why is this so bad or going to be such shocker??

And by the way, competition and improved investor confidence is bringing variable rate mortgage pricing closer to normal levels…..the good old days…!

To qualify for a variable rate mortgage you had to qualify at the 3 year fixed rate…posted rate for most lenders…

I hope you are seeing a pattern here…. the New Mortgage Rules coming into effect April 19 will mean you must qualify at the Chartered Bank 5 yr POSTED rate….Banks would love for all their clients to take a 5 yr fixed rate as these are the most profitable product for them…(would you rather pay 1.85% or 3.79%??)

Don’t be in too much of a hurry to get yourself into a higher rate…a fixed rate… you are only buying insurance… and very costly at that…..

For some of us, a fixed rate is worth the peace of mind and is important for us to know what our budget is … Discuss with a mortgage broker…. get the facts…

Is Affordability better or worse?

Here’s an interesting statistic…  5 years ago, a 5 year fixed rate mortgage was around 4.35%… and the maximum amortization was 25 years…. a $250,000 mortgage would cost you $1363/mth.

Today, a 5 year fixed rate mortgage can be found at 3.89% (and lower)… and the payment is $1300/mth….. let’s increase the mortgage to $300,000 and use the new maximum amortization of 35 years… new monthly payment is $1303/mth….

Affordability is better than ever… these historical low rates will not be here forever.. make sure you are taking full advantage…. talk with your Mortgage Broker for full details…

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