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CategoryMortgage Trends

Posted Mortgage News

CIBC Economist gives us the stats

CIBC Senior Economist, Ben Tal, spoke at this year’s annual Mortgage Broker conference in Montreal.  The conference, organized by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, is a great place for Mortgage Brokers to meet all the Lenders and service providers under one roof.

It’s also a great opportunity to hear some of Canada’s experts talk about the economy, real estate, interest rates and the mortgage market.  Here are a few highlights from Mr. Tal’s presentation.

-there are 12.5million households in Canada…31% rent, 69% own..

-of the 69% that own, 39.9% have a mortgage and 28.9% have no mortgage.

-69% of homeowners with a mortgage have more than 20% equity in their homes… only 30% have less than 20% equity in their homes.

-Renters have excellent cashflow… 96% of renters are using less than 40% of their income to pay for all their debts… so in reality, these renters could qualify for a mortgage based on their debt servicing ratios.. (most lenders allow borrowers to use up to 42% of their gross income towards a mortgage payment)…

One more comment that caught our attention was about Variable rate mortgages vs. Fixed rate… The historical data is overwhelmingly in favour of Variable rates….it’s really been a no-brainer… But what about now?  Fixed rates are at historical lows…  Mr. Tal said that Fixed rates might outperform Variable rate over the next 5 years… BUT it is so close that a 0.50% increase in Fixed rates would probably tip the scales back in favour of Variable…

That being said, we must also consider the flexibility of a Variable Rate product.. it does allow one to lock into a fixed rate at any time and it does allow for an early exit at a minimal cost….   For me, Variable rate is still better choice…for most of us.

Posted Interest rates

180 day rate hold at 3.73%… CMHC 2011 housing forecast

As reported earlier today, TD was the first to raise fixed rates… they are up by 0.25%.. The TD Canada Trust Broker rate is 3.94% and can be held for 120 days…  TD has been out of the game with their 5 year fixed rate for some time… Most Lenders are offering 3.49%….. But this will most definitely go up as the Bond yields are over 2.30%…click here for the chart.

There is another option that is less talked about.   A major Bank is offering a 180 day rate hold on a 5 year fixed rate for 3.73%… this may not be for everyone, but it’s an option for anyone looking to buy but hasn’t found a house… or for those with a long closing…

Interesting, CMHC released their 4th quarter forecast and were calling for moderate activity in 2011… but they also said low mortgage rates will help to drive the housing market….This latest increase shouldn’t cause panic…these are still record low interest rates…  But we’ll have to follow the trend and see if CMHC makes any adjustment in their forecast…

Posted Mortgage Rates

Banks slow to lower rates…but quick to raise them

Some things never change…..On Oct 19th, 2010, the 5 year Canadian Bond yield was 1.85%… It fluctuated up and down but staying below 2.00% until Nov 5th when it closed at 2.053%…  We were expecting the Banks to adjust their Fixed rates downward but it didn’t happen..

Since then, it has kept above 2.00% and is currently at 2.27%….  This increase in the Bond yield usually means Fixed Mortgage Rates will go up..  See the chart here.

But earlier this week, the Big Six Banks lowered their posted 5 year mortgage rate to 5.19% from 5.29%…  This is just a delayed reaction the low bond yields.. but it just goes to show that the Banks continue their pattern of reacting slowing to lowering rates but move like Formula 1 race car to raise rates..

Of course, Posted Mortgage Rates really don’t mean much as the Wholesale Market or Broker Market deals with the true rates.. And Fixed rates dropped late last week to their lowest levels ever. … 5 year fixed rates are now at around 3.49%… with some Lenders even offering 3.39%…  WOW!

Watch for Fixed rates to move upward slightly as the Bond yield is now high enough to warrant an increase…

Posted Interest rates

How will the high $Canadian dollar affect mortgage rates?

The Canadian dollar is just about at par with the U.S. dollar…  The BMO Economist sums it up well when he says “Generally speaking, from a stronger currency, consumers win and producers lose.”  As quoted in the Vancouver Sun.

And a high Canadian dollar means the Bank of Canada is less likely to increase the Target Rate which affects Variable Rates…  Any move by the Bank of Canada upwards will only drive the Canadian dollar higher…
A high Canadian dollar hurts our exports as they become more expensive for other countries to buy…  and we will probably see more cross border shopping as our strong $CAD will have more buying power…
Bottom line is that Variable Rates appear to be safe for now… enjoy the low rates…

 

Posted Mortgage News

Annual Mortgage borrowing stats are strong

The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) released it’s Annual State of the Residential Mortgage Market in Canada, today.   The stats show that mortgage defaults are not a concern….and Canadians can absorb up to another $300/mth in higher mortgage costs…and we have 72% equity in our homes… wow, that’s quite impressive….

I’m amazed at how the media is reporting these stats… look at this headline “Canadian Mortgage Debt tops $1-Trillion for first time”. Well, here are the highlights of the report… the numbers look good to me…

• 35% of all mortgage holders have either increased their payments or made a lump sum
payment on their mortgage in the last 12 months
• Vast majority of Canadians have ability to afford higher mortgage payments. 84% said
they could handle monthly increases of $300 or more in their monthly payments
• 90% of Canadian homeowners have at least 10% equity in their homes, 81% have over
20% equity
• 70% of Canadians are satisfied with their mortgage terms
• Despite low Bank of Canada interest rates reflected in low variable rate mortgages, a
majority (66%) of Canadians still have a five year fixed mortgage, 29% have variable
mortgages and 4% a combination
• Overall, 22% of mortgages have an amortization of greater than 25 years compared to
18% last year
• Overall home equity is 72%. For homeowners with mortgages, equity level averages
50%
• Mortgage rates continue to drop. Average mortgage rate is 4.22% versus 4.55% last
year. For those who took out a mortgage in the last year, the average rate was 3.75%,
72% of those renewing saw a decrease in their mortgage rate
• Overall, mortgage brokers account for 25% of all mortgages and for new mortgages in the
past year, this number rises to 40%
• As of August 2010, there was over $1 trillion in outstanding residential mortgage credit in
Canada
• Mortgage arrears rate remains stable at 0.42%, lower than for most of the 1990s