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Tageconomic outlook

Financial Outlook with Jean-Francois Perrault, Chief Economist Scotiabank

Following are the highlights from a telephone conversation with Jean-Francois Perrault, Chief Economist Scotiabank and John Webster, President and CEO Scotia Mortgage Corporation which took place on Thursday, April 9, 2020 at 4:30 p.m.

First, it’s not all bad news. While I’ll have to include some unpleasant information in order to provide a complete picture, that is not the focus.

Continue reading “Financial Outlook with Jean-Francois Perrault, Chief Economist Scotiabank”

Update from Goldman Sachs

Update from Goldman Sachs

Update from Goldman Sachs

There’s a document floating around the internet from Goldman Sachs.  Have you seen it? It’s a private client summary regarding the coronavirus.  1,500 companies dialed in to this call.  

For the record, Goldman Sachs has said the summary text was not authorized by them and it contains erroneous information which was not used during the call. Still, there seems to be a consistent message here. I wanted to share this with everyone because I do believe in much of what is being said.  Have a read. It’s a summary but a bit lengthy. I strongly recommend reading the entire summary as the message in the end is positive and is in line with historically recovery patterns.  

Continue reading “Update from Goldman Sachs”

Interest Rates are Rising… and Expected to Continue… But!

December Blog Image

Rates have been rising gradually over the past six months following several years of historically-low rates. There should be no surprise that rates are rising – it was bound to happen. But, we can be thankful they’re not predicted to spike. It’s much easier to deal with – and plan for – gradual increases.

Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets Inc, spoke last week about his predictions for rates and a bunch of other economic indicators. I’ve been following him for 15 years now. He’s one of the few economists whom I respect, as his forecasts have proven very accurate. So, let’s pay attention!

Continue reading “Interest Rates are Rising… and Expected to Continue… But!”

Negative interest rates by the Bank of Canada… No, not likely.

stephen polozYou gotta love the media.  Yesterday, the Bank of Canada Governor gave a speech and announced a change in contingency plans should we fall into another financial crisis… like the US-made global recession in 2008.

But if you read the headlines, you would think the sky has fallen.  All I kept seeing were headlines claiming “Canada could see Negative interest rates.  Below zero interest rates.   Canada would consider negative interest rates…  ”   Wow, talk about misleading the public.

Okay, so here’s what he really said, and this is straight from the Bank of Canada website…I quote… “We don’t need unconventional policies now, and we don’t expect to use them. However, it’s prudent to be prepared for every eventuality,” Governor Poloz said in a speech today to the Empire Club of Canada.

He went on to say that he believes that our economy is on target to rebound for 2017.. and here’s another direct quote.  The Bank is forecasting increasing annual growth in 2016 and 2017, with the Canadian economy expected to reach full capacity around mid-2017.”

I think this is pretty clear.   The ‘worst case scenario’ plan has changed..  and the BOC govr expects our economy to rebound in the next 12 to 18 months.   Hope this helps to clarify the message.  Keeping it real.. and keeping it simple.

Your best interest is my only interest.   I reply to all questions and I welcome your comments.  Like this article?  Share with a friend.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

Housing bubble? Waiting for the crash before buying has cost you 60% in the last 6 years.

Housing BubleBad news travels 10 times faster than good news!  It’s just human nature that we can’t seem to escape.  We seem more likely to gossip about someone’s misfortune than their accomplishments.

Here’s a negative headline….  YOU LOST APPROXIMATELY $355,000, SO FAR, IF YOU’VE BEEN WAITING TO A BUY HOUSE SINCE 2008.  Read on to see understand how and why.

Take Wednesday’s headline in the Financial Post, “Bank of Canada warns house prices are overvalued by up to 30%” .  WOW!  How’s that not gonna get your attention?   It certainly got mine.  I immediately had to read this article.  But the more I read, the clearer it became that this statement wasn’t exactly true.

The article pointed to a semi-annual report that is put out by the Bank of Canada entitled, Financial System Review December 2014.  That headline is an attention grabber.. And like most media headlines, it’s not the full story.  In fact, it’s not an accurate reflection of what the Bank of Canada report had to say.   If you look at Stephen Poloz’s (Bank of Canada Governor) comments, he says “there is some risk that the housing market is overvalued, and our estimates fall in the 10 to 30 per cent range”.

But he’s not done there.. Continue reading “Housing bubble? Waiting for the crash before buying has cost you 60% in the last 6 years.”

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