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REAL facts on Housing Prices… they’re not dropping like you may think!

House Prices Blog Image, April 2018

In recent months, we’ve seen the mainstream media publish several stats and articles about Canada’s declining real estate market.

The popular stories go something like this: Home sales fall by 22%; or Home prices drop by 10%. Does that sound familiar? Bad news grabs our attention. It’s human nature.

Now, for a dose of reality…

It’s true, there are fewer home sales when compared to last year’s crazy red-hot housing market. In 2017, home sales and home prices were up 20% and 25% in the first four months of the year. That pace is unsustainable. We don’t ever want to match that pace. Continue reading “REAL facts on Housing Prices… they’re not dropping like you may think!”

Review your mortgage NOW! Next year may be too late.

It’s begun.  The message is starting to sink in.  The new mortgage rules could eliminate 15% of Canadians from qualifying for a mortgage after January 1st, 2018.  The mad rush has started as mortgage inquiries are up significantly.

WHO WILL BE AFFECTED?

  • Anyone that has a mortgage renewal in next 12 to 20 months.
  • Anyone thinking of buying in the next 12 months.
  • Anyone that is needs or is thinking of refinancing their mortgage in the next 12 months.
  • Rental property owners.  Yes, you too.
  • Future retirees with lots of home equity (newsflash..the new rules don’t take into consideration how much equity you have in your home.. your net worth is also irrelevant… it’s all about how much income you earn and declare…)

All of these borrowers will be affected.  If you’re not getting the message, anyone with a mortgage should be getting a review done NOW.  Don’t wait until next year.  You may not qualify for a mortgage.

EXPECT HOME SALES TO SPIKE UP TEMPORARILY Continue reading “Review your mortgage NOW! Next year may be too late.”

Spring housing market in the Fall?

Fewer homes in the summer.  Lower average home selling price in the summer.  That’s this year’s headline.  But it could also apply to last year or the year before or the year before that.

What hasn’t been said much is that house prices almost always go up in the Spring and fall during the summer. 

This year isn’t much different.  Except that this Spring, we saw ridiculous price increases in the 20% range.

That’s just not sustainable.  Check out some of these graphs from Canadian Real Estate Association.

This summer, house prices have fallen a little more than average.   And sales are also down compared with the last 2 years.  But listings haven’t increased.  In fact, listings dropped in July signalling we could have reached the bottom.

Hey, if we were in a housing bubble, you would have seen new listings continue to spike up.  That’s when we know the market will have changed gears.

 

PENT UP BUYER DEMAND?

Some are speculating that we could see a busy Fall market this September or October.  The Fall has historically been the 2nd busiest housing market.    If we look at Vancouver in 2016, after they announced their 15% Foreign tax rule, their market went soft and was very quiet.  Many pessimists were saying it was the bubble bursting.

Six months later and Vancouver’s market is busier than ever. Fully recovered.  The initial shock of the Foreign tax rule came and went.   We could see that same sort of comeback for Toronto.

A WORD TO OUR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND REGULATORS…

To the Federal govt:  Please, no more mortgage rule changes.  Let the market absorb all the massive changes already made.  Listen, I’m telling you with 28 years of mortgage lending experience.. I can’t recall when qualifying for a mortgage has ever been harder… and I was around during the last real estate recession of 1990.

Non-bank lenders are being penalized as their cost of funds are higher than BIG SIX BANKS (thanks to the new Fed govt mortgage rules), hence driving more customers towards the BANKS… THE WINNERS:  BIG SIX BANKS.  THE LOSERS: CONSUMERS. Let’s bring back competition among Mortgage Lenders… and let’s make mortgage financing accessible again.  The pendulum has swung way too far to the conservative lending side.

BANK OF CANADA RATE HIKES ON HOLD?

The Bank of Canada hiked the Prime rate by 0.25% in July.  It was headline news for weeks.  Many said this was the 1st of many hikes to come.  Today, the forecast is for a possible October hike.  But that isn’t a sure thing.  And if the uncertainty with the housing market continues or if the NAFTA trade agreement gets turfed like President Trump says, you can bet the Bank of Canada governor will think twice about raising the rates.   More likely a rate drop!

Stay tuned.. Maybe we’ll see a Spring market in the Fall?

Your best interest is my only interest.   I reply to all questions and I welcome your comments.  Like this article?  Share with a friend.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

Panic buying? When will the housing market slow down?

 

hot-housing-marketHouses selling over asking price is becoming the norm, these days.  Kinda crazy.  Sometimes a house is just listed under market value to attract a frenzy of buyers. An old tactic that has worked well in larger urban markets.  Today, that tactic is being used in smaller communities, too.

What’s unclear is if this selling tactic is contributing to houses selling for more than they’re worth.  And what is a home worth, anyway?   I always thought a house was worth what someone was willing to pay in the open market.  That’s still true in most cases, today.

When I see reports of houses selling for $100k, $200k and $300k over asking, it makes me wonder.  How long will this market last?  Will it crash?  And if so, when?   It’s hard to make forecasts and I can’t see into the future, but let’s examine this a little.

WHEN WILL THE HOUSING MARKET CRASH? Continue reading “Panic buying? When will the housing market slow down?”

Today is your last chance to stop DOUBLING of Land Transfer Tax.

kathleen wynneAs this is such an important issue, I’m gonna repeat my last article.  Today is the last day to voice your opinion to our Provincial govt and tell them how you feel about the possibility of DOUBLING your Land Transfer Tax.     The govt is accepting all opinions until today.

The Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing is Ted McMeekin… You can email his office through Mark Cripps at  Mark.Cripps@ontario.ca and by phone at 416 585 6842.

In case you don’t know what Land Transfer Tax is… the province charges a tax to the purchaser, every time a home is sold.  Yup, another cash grab.  It’s kinda like when you buy a new car… when you buy it, you are charged sales tax (today, that’s 13%… remember when it was 7% and 8%?  seeing a pattern here anyone?).   And when you sell that car, the sales tax is levied once again to the new purchaser…when they sell it, the new purchaser must pay this sales tax again… and so on, and so on.    But why?  Why should a sales tax be charged over and over again?   Can anyone explain this?

If you buy a house, and sell in 2 or 3 or 10 yrs, the govt charges this Land Transfer Tax.  It’s ridiculous and it’s not a fair system of levying a charge..   Yet, it’s something that has been accepted as the norm.

In Toronto, the mayor couldn’t balance the budget so he seeked special powers from the Province to introduce a Toronto Land Transfer Tax in 2008.  Yup, they just created a new tax out of thin air and slammed all property buyers with a double tax..   Nice, eh?

Look, if you are as upset with this as I am, then take 2 mins and send an email to the govt.   It’s one thing to bring into a major city like Toronto, but to bring into all communities across the province would be disastrous.   Not all of Ontario is experiencing prosperity.  This is shameful.  I don’t like making strong statements like that.  But I can’t help myself.

Stand up Ontarians!  Have your say.

Your best interest is my only interest.   I reply to all questions and I welcome your comments.  Like this article?  Share with a friend.

Steve Garganis 416 224 0114 steve@mortgagenow.ca

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