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CategoryMortgage Trends

Posted Interest rates

The effect of an NDP win or coming in 2nd place and mortgage rates.

We don’t normally get involved in politics on this site… not unless it can affect mortgage rates, the housing market or the economy…One of the more infamous examples was in 1995 during the Quebec Referendum.   Does anyone remember that?

Just before the referendum, a new poll had suggested that Quebecers’ could win a majority vote to separate.  This sent the Canadian stock market and the Canadian dollar plunging.   You might also remember that the Bank of Canada rate jumped 1.00% over night along with mortgage rates.  It’s the single biggest increase that we have ever seen.  It forced many of us to lock into a 5 year fixed rate… (something the Banks loved as the 5 year fixed rate product is the most profitable).

I’m not saying this will happen again but there was a report in The National Post that says BMO put out a warning to investors that things could be shaky if Jack Layton and the NDP  continue to gain ground in the polls.

Another recent development this week is that a few major Lenders have increased their rates on new Variable rate mortgages.  We have seen them go from Prime less 0.75% to Prime less 0.50%.   They say it’s due to profitability pressures…. but I wonder if has more to do with the election next week?

Posted Mortgage Products

New Cashback mortgage offers are finally worth looking at!

The old Cashback mortgages

As a general rule, cashback mortgage offers have never really worked to the benefit of the borrower.  The Banks loves it when a borrower takes one of these deals because it costs the borrower more, earning a higher profit for the Bank.

A cashback mortgage is easy to understand….  The Bank will usually give you Posted Bank Rates with some cash back on closing… The cash back is depends on the term of the mortgage but it’s usually been between 2% and 5.5% of the mortgage balance.

If you have a $250,000 mortgage, the thought of getting $5,000 to $13,750 back in cash on closing sounds pretty good…  But let’s take a closer look…

If you do the math, this usually works out to around a 0.60% to 1.10% discount off Posted Rates.  Today’s posted 5 year fixed is 5.69%… that would give you an effective fixed rate of around 4.59% at best… Compare this with today’s wholesale discounted fixed rates of 4.19% and the REAL cost of getting that 5.5% cashback means you will pay $4,767 more over the 5 year term.

The New cashback mortgages

Recently, we came across an interesting offer from one of the major Lenders….  Thought we’d share the details…

-5 year fixed rate of 4.29% with a 2% cashback for mortgages under $400k gives an effective rate of 3.89%…and 3% cashback for mortgages over $400k gives an effective rate of 3.69%.

-5 year variable rate of Prime less 0.50% with a 2% cashback for mortgages under $400k gives and effective rate of Prime less 0.90%.. and a 3% cashback for mortgages over $400k gives and effective rate of Prime less 1.10%

Note: if you were to apply the cashback at the time of closing, the effective rates would be even lower.

There is a catch…These cashback offers are only available for mortgage refinances or transfers from other financial institutions… they are not available for purchases (we don’t understand why but that’s the deal)…  AND  you CANNOT pay these out early with giving back the entire cashback to the Lender…It is also a little harder to qualify for these products and the approval process is a much more involved and time consuming…  You will definitely want your broker to be involved in helping processing the approval…  (don’t be surprised if your broker has to charge you a small fee for their time…it will still be well worth it.)

I must say, even with these limitations, it  may still be worth considering.   It’s good to see some more competition in this segment of the mortgage market.

Posted Interest rates

Inflation rate drops in February and rate hikes pulled back.

It may seem hard to believe  but Canada’s core inflation rate is down in February to lowest level since 1984 as reported by CBC.  It’s now 0.90%.

Filling up my car at the gas pumps or buying groceries is certainly costing me more… So how can the inflation rate be lower be lower?

The Core inflation rate strips away food and energy costs resulting in a lower rate of inflation.

The Bank of Canada has a Target inflation rate of 2%.  The Target range is 1% to 3%.  When you combine a high Canadian $dollar that is at par with the $US dollar and this low inflation rate, the Bank of Canada less likely to raise the Target Rate….for now.

Here are a few forecasts…  Citigroup says a rate hike will not take place in April but instead, July.  And retired RBC Chief Economist, Patricia Croft says to watch the Bank of Canada 2 year bond yields for an indication of where the market thinks rates are headed.   The yields have dropped from 1.90% to 1.68%.    She says the market thinks rates won’t go up til October and only by 35bps.  But she thinks we should be ready for summer rate hikes.  The next few inflation reports will play a big part in the Bank of Canada’s future decisions.

I tend to agree with both forecasts… Summer rate hikes are  likely…. but I’m not sure how high and how quickly these rate hikes will happen.   We’ll be watching and reporting.

Posted Mortgage Trends

Scotiabank says Bank of Canada won’t move till October

Last week, the Bank of Canada (BOC) kept it’s Target Rate unchanged for the 4th consecutive meeting.  That’s means Bank Prime is still 3.00%.  Many Experts and Economists think the next rate hike will come as early as April or as late as June….

But not all Economists agree.  Scotiabank’s economists say the rate will remain unchanged til October.   They give a detailed explanation as outlined in this National Post article... but the main reasons are:

  • high $Canadian Dollar (an increase by BOC usually increases the $CAD)
  • global uncertainty… the middle east turmoil and European debt worries
  • tougher financing rules including the new mortgage rules
  • U.S. Fed not expected to raise their rate til next year…any increase by the BOC would push the $CAD even higher and make our exports even more expensive
  • possible Federal election in Canada coming soon.. and provincial elections this year…  history tells us that rates are usually flat during election time.

The Scotiabank economist make a good argument.   I like the political reason… History shows us politics play a big role in the BOC actions….  Enjoy the low rates… They seem to be here for a while.

Posted Mortgage News

Bond yields fall after Middle East turmoil

Earlier this month, we saw Fixed mortgage rates go up and the forecasts were calling for rates to continue to go up over the next 2 years.   It’s important to remember that all forecasts make certain assumptions and don’t allow for the unexpected… These forecasts may still be accurate but of course, no one was expecting the uprising in Egypt, now Libya and possibly other Middle East countries…

The Canada Bond yield has dropped around 22bps to 2.58% from a 10 month high of 2.80%.    This takes some of the pressure off to raise fixed rates… and we might even start to see some Fixed rate decreases if the Bond yields fall further…(or course, the Banks are famous for raising rates immediately but lowering them slowly and this was even identified by the most recent Bank of Canada quarterly review)

I can’t help but to reflect on Professor Moshe Milevsky’s article from a few weeks about how to deal with rising interest rates…. In this article he cautioned us about overreacting to warnings of huge rate hikes or calls to lock in your mortgage…    Wow, the timing of his article couldn’t be more perfect.   I recommend you take a moment and read what the Professor has to say.